50 



♦ KNOWLEDGE ♦ 



[Jan. 16, 1885. 



^ (serpens ) 



iw^ XV ur^ 



The Day Sign for the Month. 



II. The Weather.— (r() Ra'wfall. — Again I think it 

 incumbent on me to state that, in testing the forecasts of 

 rain, only those in which rain or snow was definitely 

 predicted have been taken iuto account, such terms as 

 "changeable," "unsettled," and "less settled " not being 

 regarded as predictions of either rain or snow ; 142 of 

 these definite predictions were made, and 107 proved 

 correct — about 75 per cent. In 1883 the figures were 

 1G7 prophecies, and 72 per cent, of successes. In addition, 

 rain or snow fell on 73 days when neither was predicted, 

 or on 13 more days than in 1883. 



{b.) Temperature. — Nearly three times as many forecasts 

 of temperature were issued last year as in 1883, and a far 

 greater proportion of them were of changes in temperature. 

 The percentage of successes, however, is not so high, being 

 70 per cent, in 1884, and 84 per ceut. in 1883. Alto- 

 gether there were 112 of these forecasts, and 79 of them 

 were correct. 



(c.) Ilvinidittj. — Eight times the office predicted a dry 

 state of the air, and fotu- times the prediction was verified. 

 In 1883 dryness was only predicted twice, and then also 

 the honours were divided. Fog or mist was prophesied 

 53 times — 30 times correctly — about the same proportion of 

 successes as in 1883, when 24 out of 42 were correct. 



Taking the above figures into consideration, and also the 

 other items that make up a weather forecast (" dull," " fine," 

 "cloudy," "thunder," &.C.), I drew up the following table, 

 which show.s at a glance the relative value of these fore- 

 casts for each month of the past year. C' represents 

 correct, C- moderately correct, and C incorrect. 



CI 



January 14 



February 13 



March I 15 



April 12 



May 14 



June 15 



July 19 



Angnst 13 



September 13 



October 19 



November 12 



December 12 



Totals 171 



Totals for 1883... 169 



I have placed the totals for 1883 under those for the 

 past year becau.'ie they ai-e so strikingly similar. As a 

 matter of fact, little advance has been made in the matter 

 of the weather forecasts, and I do not yet see any reason, 

 for changing the opinion I formerly expressed — that 

 though the office may fairly congratulate itself on its 

 wind predictions, it cannot take to itself much credit 

 for its weather forecasts, uearly half of which are wide of 

 the mark. 



Finally, to take the two years together we find that out 

 of GOl forecasts which the Meteorological Office has issued 

 of the wind's direction, 417 have been correct; of 578 of 

 the wind's force 325 have hit the mark ; and that the office 

 has blundered no fewer than 284 times in making 624 pre- 

 dictions of the state of the weather. 



