I20 



THE TREND OF THE RACE 



number of individuals in this group forms a rough indication of 

 the declining birth rate. This decline is indicated by the following 

 table compiled by Professor Willcox,^ giving the number of chil- 

 dren under five years of age for every i ,000 women between the 

 ages of 16 and 44: 



Decreasing Proportion of Children in the United States 



Number of Children under 5 

 Date per 1,000 Women 



16-44 Years of Age 



1800 .976 



1810 976 



1820 928 



1830 877 



1840 835 



1850 699 



i860 714 



1870 649 



1880 635 



1890 554 



1900 541 



1910 508 



It has been calculated by Professor Willcox that if this rate of 

 diminution continues for a century and a half there will be no 

 more children produced. The proportion of children here indi- 

 cated would naturally be affected by foreign immigration which 

 consists largely of adults. This would tend to decrease the 

 relative proportion of children, but the large number of foreign 

 women among these immigrants who are of child-bearing age, 

 would tend in a few years to make the number of children in- 

 crease. In other words, if foreign immigration were checked the 

 proportion of children might not after all be greatly reduced, if 

 at all. 



During the past few centuries, and especially in the 19th cen- 

 ^ Pubs. Am. Stat. Ass. 15, 1-15, 1916 



