THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 149 



while in others it has fluctuated back and forth. In general, the 

 marriage rates calculated according to the two methods show a 

 fairly pronounced tendency to vary together. 



The birth rate would very naturally be affected by the average 

 age of marriage, since with later marriages there is a greater 

 reduction of the child-bearing period. Galton estimates that the 

 expected fertility of women marrying at 29 is to that of women 

 marrying at 20 as 5 to 8. It is a common belief that the average 

 age of marriage is increasing. For some countries this is true, 

 but as the accompanying table shows, this is by no means a 

 general fact. The average age has declined slightly for both 

 sexes in France, Prussia, Bavaria, Oldenburg and Denmark for 

 nearly a half century. For the last quarter of the 19th century it 

 has declined also in Finland, Wurtenburg and Saxony. 



Average Ages of Marriage. 



In England and Wales the mean age of spinsters has slowly 

 advanced, according to Newsholme, since 1873, (earlier data are 

 rather untrustworthy), the increase from 1896 to 1899 being 

 from 25.08 years to 25.73. There has been a general increase also 

 in Queensland and New South Wales. 



The statistics of the average age of marriage (as well as those of 

 the marriage rate) are aCected by the frequency of divorce. 

 Where divorces are common there is apt to be a large number of 



