RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT 375 



The death rate of the total population aged 40 and over has in- 

 creased in Massachusetts and New Jersey during 30 years (1880- 

 1910) 5.3 or 21.2 per cent, in 16 cities 8.1 or 25.3 per cent, and in 

 10 states from 1900-19 10, 89 or 3 per cent. The author concludes 

 that "while the average length of life has advanced, the extreme 

 span of life has not done so — in fact, the indications are that is 

 has been shortened." 



These are disquieting statistics, but we must be careful in 

 interpreting them. As Dublin has pointed out, the increasing 

 mortality after middle age in this country may be largely ex- 

 plained by the increasing proportions of foreigners and their 

 immediate descendants, among whom the average expectation 

 of life is considerably lower than among the native population of 

 native parentage. As an inspection of Glover's life tables will 

 show, the differences in the mortality rates of the native and the 

 foreign born become greater with advanced ages, although they 

 have become reduced in extreme age. That the decreasing 

 longevity in advanced age groups is not a general characteristic 

 of modern civilization as indicated by a comparison of the life 

 tables of several countries of Europe. Taking the expectation of 

 life at sixty years as an index of vitality in old age we find in 

 France a slight increase from 1861-65, when it was 13.55 years, 

 to 13.58 years in 1877-81, and a further increase in 1898-03 to 

 13.81 years. The increased expectation of life at sixty years in 

 Germany is shown as follows: 



Expectation of Life in Germany at 60 Years of Age 



Dates 1871-81 i88i-go 1891-00 igoi-io 



Expected years of life 12. 11 12.43 12.82 13.14 



Denmark shows a steadily increasing expectation of life at 

 sixty years from 1835-44 to 1900 and Norway shows a gradual 

 increase since 1856 and Sweden since 1861. The expectation of 

 life at sixty years in England fell somewhat from the middle of 

 the 19th century to 1881-90 after which it has increased about 

 two years. For the past tliiity to forty years people of the old- 

 age groups have been living slightly longer on the average also in 





