30 ROUGH WAYS MAD*. SMOOTH. 



instead of explaining away the evidence derived from Lloyd's 

 list of losses. 



This leads us to the last, and, in some respects, the most 

 singular suggestion respecting solar influence on mundane 

 events the idea, namely, that commercial crises synchronise 

 with the sun-spot period, occurring near the time when 

 spots are least in size and fewest in number ; or, as Pro- 

 fessor Jevons (to whom the definite enunciation of this 

 theory is due) poetically presents the matter, that from ' the 

 sun, which is truly " of this great world both eye and soul," 

 we derive our strength and our weakness, our success and 

 our failure, our elation in commercial mania, and our 

 despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.' We have 

 better opportunities of dealing with this theory than with 

 the others, for we have records of commercial matters extend- 

 ing as far back as the beginning of the eighteenth century. 

 In fact, we have better evidence than Professor Jevons 

 seems to have supposed, for whereas in his discussion of 

 the matter he considers only the probable average of the sun- 

 spot period, we know approximately the epochs themselves 

 at which the maxima and minima of sun spots have occurred 

 since the year 1700. The evidence as presented by Pro- 

 fessor Jevons is very striking, though when examined in 

 detail it is rather disappointing. He presents the whole 

 series of decennial crises as follows: 1701? (such query 

 marks are his own), 1711, 1721, 1731-32, I74 2 (?), 1752 (?), 

 1763, 1772-73* 1783, 1793, 1804-5 (?), I8l 5> 1825, 1836-9 

 (1837 in the United States), 1847, 1857, 1866 and 1878. 

 The average interval comes out 10.466 years, showing, as 

 Jevons points out, 'almost perfect coincidence with Brown's 

 estimate of the average sun-spot period.' Let us see, how- 

 ever, whether these dates correspond so closely with the 

 years of minimum spot-frequency as to remove all doubt. 

 Taking 5^ years as the average interval between maximum 

 and minimum sun-spot frequency, we should like to find 

 every crisis occurring within a year or so on either side of 

 the minimum though we should prefer perhaps to find the 



