SUN-SPOTS AND COMMERCIAL PANICS. 31 



crisis always following the time of fewest sun-spots, as this 

 would more directly show the depressing effect of a spotless 

 sun. No crisis ought to occur within a year or so of maxi- 

 mum solar disturbance ; for that, it should seem, would be 

 fatal to the suggested theory. Taking the commercial crises 

 in order, and comparing them with the known (or approxi- 

 mately known) epochs of maximum and minimum spot 

 frequency, we obtain the following results (we italicize 

 numbers or results unfavourable to the theory) : The 

 doubtful crisis of 1701 followed a spot minimum by three 

 years ; the crisis of 1 7 1 1 preceded a minimum by one year ; 

 that of 1721 preceded a minimum by two years; 1731-32, 

 preceded a minimum by one year ; 1742 preceded a minimum 

 by three years; 1752 followed a maximum by two years ; 

 1763 followed a maximum by a year and a half; 1772-73 

 came midway between a maximum and a minimum ; 1783 

 preceded a minimum by nearly two years ; 1793 came nearly 

 midway between a maximum and a minimum ; 1804-5 

 coincided with a maximum ; 1815 preceded a maximum by 

 two years-, 1825 folio wed a minimum by two years ; 1836-39 

 included \hz year 1837 of maximum solar activity (that year 

 being the time also when a commercial crisis occurred in 

 the United States); 1847 preceded a maximum by a year 

 and a half; 1866 preceded a minimum by a year; and 1878 

 followed a minimum by a year. Four favourable cases out of 

 17 can hardly be considered convincing. If we include cases 

 lying within two years of a minimum, the favourable cases 

 mount up to seven, leaving ten unfavourable ones. It must 

 be remembered, too, that a single decidedly unfavourable 

 case (as 1804, 1815, 1837) does more to disprove such a theory 

 than 20 favourable cases would do towards establishing it. 

 The American panic of 1873, by the way, which occurred 

 when spots were very numerous, decidedly impairs the 

 evidence derived from the crises of 1866 and 1878. 



