294 THE RUBBER INDUSTRY 



The estimated production for the next six years is 

 given in the table on p. 295. 



This estimate is drawn up on distinctly conservative 

 lines, and therefore may be exceeded by the actual pro- 

 duction in the course of the next few years; on the 

 other hand, the figures may be above the mark in event 

 of some great unforeseen disaster to the plantations in 

 Malaya. 



So far as published returns of the consumption of 

 crude rubber go, they show the amount used by manu- 

 facturers in 1913 to have been 110,000 tons approxi- 

 mately. Assuming that 120,000 tons are needed to 

 meet the demand in 1914, the question of a sufficiency 

 of the raw material depends on the quantity of wild 

 rubber brought to market. In 1913 the aggregate of 

 the supplies from Brazil, Africa, and Central America, 

 was between 65,000 and 70,000 tons ; the indications are 

 that this production will be curtailed to a substantial 

 extent during 1914 and subsequently. This year, how- 

 ever, in view of present prices, it is reasonable to sup- 

 pose that a shrinkage of at least 35 per cent, will take 

 place in the supplfes of wild rubber as compared to 

 1913 ; if this occurs, the position for 1914 will be 



Plantation rubber 85,000 tons. 



Wild rubber (say) 50,000 



Total supplies ... 135,000 ,, 



This leaves a surplus of 15,000 tons to be absorbed over 

 the amount generally accepted as required for normal 

 necessities by manufacturers. A revival of commercial 

 activity in the United States would account for a very 

 considerable percentage of this surplus ; but the effect 

 of the over-production in the course of the next twelve 



