TEMPERATE SURPLUS-PRODUCING REGIONS 83 



1 Ib. increase in the live weight of meat animals, 1 and if dressed 

 meat is taken to average 60% of live weight, 2 the above total of 

 8 million tons would yield about (385,000 tons of meat, or more 

 than one half of the total meat imports of the United Kingdom in 

 1913. The importance of these exports of animal feedstuffs from 

 Eastern Europe was not perhaps generally recognised in its bearing 

 upon the production of meat in Western Europe, especially in the 

 United Kingdom and Denmark. 



Whether these supplies will be available to the same extent in 

 the future is a question that requires examination. Much of the 

 land suitable for cereal production is already occupied, except 

 towards Northern Russia, where forests still cover land upon which 

 oats and barley might be grown. Such land will probably be 

 brought steadily into cultivation, though the rate of progress cannot 

 be rapid, since years must elapse between the felling of the timber 

 and the first ploughing for crops. 



The fact that such large exports of cereals have been possible 

 for many successive years is due to the Black Earth soils of Russia 

 and to the loess soils of Hungary, Roumania and Northern Bul- 

 garia. However, the fertility of such soils suffers from continuous 

 cereal cropping. They are apt to become poor in phosphates, 3 

 and consequently the use of artificial fertilisers or an extension of 

 animal-rearing becomes essential for the maintenance of produc- 

 tivity. Artificial manures, though more widely used in recent 

 years 4 , are still little known in Russia and transport difficulties, as 

 well as high prices for imported fertilisers, stand in the way of their 

 extended use. Unfortunately, also, the great cereal districts have 

 few sheep 5 or cattle 6 which might assist in maintaining the fer- 

 tility. The average yield, therefore, in Russia is very low, though 

 it shows a tendency to rise. 7 In Hungary and Roumania the aver- 

 age yields are higher owing to a greater average fertility of culti- 



1 This seems a fair average for cattle, sheep and pigs. Under favourable con- 

 ditions pigs and young stock of other kinds require less than 7 Ibs. of concen- 

 trated feedstuffs to produce 1 Ib. increase in live weight, while steers require 

 more. 



2 From information supplied by British and American official papers, the 

 following proportions of dressed to live weight appear representative : for 

 cattle, 60% ; for sheep 50% ; for pigs, 75-80%. 



3 The following estimate has been made of the net loss of Russian soils in 

 phosphoric acid per annum : 



Annual withdrawal per cereals = 666,000 tons 

 return to soil = 185,400 ,, 



Annual deficit 480,600 



Extract from U.S. Daily Commerce Report, April 27th, 1912. 



4 Report of British Consul at Moscow for 1911 (Cd. 6665-130), p. 7." The 

 use of mineral manures .... has made great strides." 



6 See Daily Commerce Reports, Oct. 6th, 1910, p. 68, where the decline in 

 sheep in European Russia is ascribed to break-up of large estates. 



J. Mavor, Economic History of Russia, 1914, Vol. II., pp. 285, 286. 



7 The average wheat-yields in Russia per acre for the years 1905-14 were as 

 ollows : average of years 1905-9, 93 bushels ; average 1910-14, 9'6 bushels. 



