94 PRODUCTION 



much further in response to future demand, and there is also no 

 reason why pig-products, and possibly also cheese, beef and mutton 

 should not rise in export trade to some proportions. 



The further development of animal industries in this region 

 depends upon several factors which may or may not be realised 

 in the near future. Of these the most outstanding are improve- 

 ments in transport of all kinds, the provision of cold storage depots, 

 and the adoption of more intensive methods involving a wider 

 knowledge of the science of animal husbandry, better technical 

 equipment, and greater adaptability on the part of the peasant 

 farmers than they at present possess. It is interesting to note 

 that there are signs of a coming change, shown by the spread of 

 co-operation, the greater use of machinery, and the renewed interest 

 in various kinds of animal industries in Russia, Siberia and 

 Bulgaria. 



For the present the leading feature is the huge export-surplus of 

 animal feedstuffs, upon which intensive animal-raising industries 

 in Western Europe have been dependent in no small measure. 

 The total value of these exports of feedstuffs, when converted into 

 terms of meat, is very large much greater than the total meat 

 exports from South America in recent years. 



With regard to the future, though threatened soil exhaustion 

 may reduce the total output, it is just as likely that internal changes 

 in the methods of production, leading to the maintenance of food- 

 producing animals, together with crop-production, will enable this 

 region to maintain, and perhaps to increase, its surplus both of 

 cereals and of animal foodstuffs. Large areas in Siberia are at 

 present undeveloped or are not producing to their full capacity, 

 and this statement is also true of parts of Russia. The tendencies 

 are in favour of finished animal produce replacing cereal foodstuffs 

 in the export trade to a limited extent ; and the difficulties and 

 cost of transport will favour this movement. Droughts are not 

 unknown in various parts of this region, and the surplus of cereals, 

 whether foodstuffs or feedstuffs, is accordingly liable to fluctua- 

 tions. It is not likely that in the near future non-agricultural 

 population will advance rapidly enough to cause any serious re- 

 duction in the exportable surplus of animal produce together with 

 feedstuffs from this region. 



NOTE. 



The above account of the conditions in Russia and Siberia has been written 

 without reference to the changes that may be brought about either temporarily 

 or permanently, as a consequence of the European War. These changes 

 may or may not be far-reaching. The future economic development of 

 Russia and its erstwhile dependencies is now more than ever difficult to fore- 

 tell. When, however, their agricultural industries are re-established, they 

 are likely to follow the lines indicated above, marked out by geographical 

 and other conditions. 



