238 CONSUMPTION 



whole at least as fast as the consuming population. 1 It has been 

 noted in Part I., above, that new cereal lands still exist and are 

 constantly being carved out of what have been hitherto pasture 

 lands. In these the cost of grain production with modern agri- 

 cultural machinery and facilities for transporting and handling the 

 produce is low. It is believed that the increase in acreage under 

 wheat and other cereals together with the upward trend in the 

 average yields, removes any likelihood of a world shortage in these 

 articles under normal conditions for many years to come. 2 This 

 is the case in spite of the possible increase in the numbers of the 

 world's wheat consumers in Asiatic countries and elsewhere : in 

 spite also of the fact that the per capita consumption of wheat has 

 shown a tendency to increase in countries populated by Europeans ; 

 and in spite of the fact that there may be further increases in the 

 per capita consumption of some countries in the event of the tariffs 

 that have hitherto been imposed upon imported wheat being re- 

 duced or abolished. 3 Since cereal prices have in the past corres- 

 ponded fairly closely to the fluctuations in production, it may be 

 assumed that they will continue to do so in the future. If, there- 

 fore, no shortage arises in the supplies of food cereals in the near 

 future, there is scarcely likely to be any marked increase in their 

 prices to consumers beyond the general advance in those of all 

 agricultural produce, and they may even fall relatively to those of 

 other such commodities. 



It is not accordingly to be anticipated that the cost of the staple 

 cereals in the average European dietary will rise appreciably or 

 will be effective in diminishing that part of the purchasing power 

 of the working classes available for animal foodstuffs. In view of 

 the fact that in most countries wealthy consumers form but a small 

 proportion of the total population, it is scarcely probable that the 

 competition of feedstuff cereals with food cereals for the use of 

 land will become severely felt in the producing regions. 4 



1 As we are here concerned especially with meat-consuming populations, 

 the principal food cereal of these populations, namely wheat, may be taken 

 as a guide under this head. Accordingly to Rew's estimate (Cd. 7271, p. 377( 

 the world's wheat acreage per head of wheat consumers increased from 

 28 acres to '31 acres in the period 1901 to 1911, while there was in addition 

 some increase in the average yield. Correspondingly wheat prices on the 

 London market showed no advance beyond that of commodities in general 

 in the same period. 



2 See U.S. Depart. Agric. Yearbook, 1909. Article by Cerealist in charge 

 of grain investigations, Bureau of Plant Industry, pp. 259-272. 



8 An increase in the per capita consumption of wheat in a given country 

 may be due (a) to a substitution cf wheat for other cereals such as rye, barley, 

 maize and even rice ; (6) to a more extensive use of cereals as a means of 

 partially replacing animal foodstuffs ; (c) to a rise in the standard of living 

 all round. 



* When examined in detail the questions at issue here appear complicated. 

 It is necessary to realise the interdependence of all prices for different kinds 

 of agricultural produce. Farmers will substitute one crop for another, so 

 far as they are able, according to their forecast of maximum profits. It would 

 follow, therefore, that if the demand for meat (and other animal foodstuffs^ 





