ECONOMIC FACTORS 239 



The future changes in the wage-levels and the purchasing power 

 of the working classes among white populations, and especially in 

 Europe, appear to depend mainly upon the progress made in in- 

 dustrial development and in the bargaining power of the workers 

 in combinations. Industrialism advanced rapidly in the period 

 preceding the war, and there is every prospect of further develop- 

 ments in the years following its close. The world's demand for 

 manufactured goods, especially for those in which iron and steel 

 are the chief raw materials, seems likely to be very great in the near 

 future. Apart from the actual destruction caused by the European 

 War, the stocks of most manufactured goods will be very low at its 

 close. The provision of adequate food supplies will itself cause an 

 extensive demand for manufactured material for the construction 

 and equipment of transportation systems, and for agricultural 

 appliances. This demand may not be properly satisfied for some 

 time, but in this case the efficient production and transportation 

 of foodstuffs will suffer and the tendency for production to fall 

 short of consumption will be accentuated. When the first twelve 

 years of the present century are considered in this connection, it 

 is found, that not only was industrialism expanding in those regions 

 such as Western and Central Europe and Eastern North America, 

 where it was already established, but that new industrial and 

 mining centres were springing into existence in regions that had 

 previously been almost exclusively agricultural. 1 It seems fair to 

 argue that this widespread and persistent movement is one of the 

 tendencies of the times, which will reappear with unabated strength 



became very great and their prices correspondingly high, some land that 

 might otherwise be devoted to wheat may be diverted to the production of 

 feedstuffs, and that greater quantities of grains other than wheat when pro- 

 duced might be fed to animals instead of being marketed for human food. 

 Unless the supplies of cereals become very abundant relative to population 

 the consequence of this process would be to raise cereal prices all round. 



On the production side it may remain profitable to produce wheat and 

 other food cereals, even if the prices obtained are somewhat low, because, 

 generally speaking, the prices for cereals for feedstuffs would be still lower, 

 owing to the greater amount of human labour and the loss of food values 

 involved in the elaboration of the feedstuffs into meat and other animal 

 foodstuffs. Thus in England in the period 1894 to 1913 wheat prices re- 

 covered more rapidly, and to a greater extent, than those of barley and oats. 



On the consumption side the limitations of the general purchasing power 

 have to be considered. Only comparatively wealthy consumers can regard a 

 rise in the price of the staple cereal foodstuffs with indifference. The majority 

 of consumers are relatively poor and must check their consumption of animal 

 foodstuffs when a rise in the prices of foodstuffs in general, however caused, 

 makes itself felt. Though probably not a conscious process, the action of 

 the average consumer amounts in effect to this, that he chooses rather to have 

 a cheap supply of wheat and forego to a certain extent his desired supplies of 

 meat rather than attempt to satisfy his taste for the latter at the expense of 

 raising the prices of both this and the former. As a matter of fact, he is 

 compelled to cut down his consumption of animal foodstuffs when food 

 prices begin to rise, unless wages and incomes rise also. 



1 Among countries populated by Europeans the most notable instances are 

 Russia, Sweden, Holland, Italy and Canada. 



