276 CONSUMPTION 



industries as the readiest means of preventing rapid soil exhaustion, 

 will favour them so far as it increases the residue of agricultural 

 production above that required in the forms of food and industrial 

 crops ; constant progress is being made in improving the types 

 of domesticated animals and the species of cultivated plants ; 

 plant and animal pests and diseases are being slowly overcome ; 

 horses are being replaced by motor-power for agricultural opera- 

 tions (II., 5) ; transport facilities are being extended in the more 

 remote parts of the temperate regions ; and fertile agricultural 

 land within easy reach of markets can, as experience has proved, 

 be made much more productive than has hitherto been the general 

 rule, but here difficulties arise through the shortage of capital and 

 skilled labour available (I., 9), through the lack of suitable social 

 organisation, and through insufficient technical training among 

 farmers (I., 12). 



The whole of the processes by which the average agricultural 

 output per acre may be increased can be summed up in the single 

 word, intensification. Although rapid progress in this direction 

 is theoretically possible, actual progress is slow owing to a variety 

 of causes, the most prominent among which is the general conser- 

 vatism and lack of enterprise among producers, due in no small 

 measure at the present time to the insecurity of market prices in 

 the period between 1875 and about the year 1905. 



The anticipated shortage of animal foodstuffs in the near future 

 can be met by action on the part of consumers, so that the impair- 

 ment to the standard of living that might arise as a consequence 

 may be lessened. 



Fish will probably be available in much greater quantities than 

 hitherto as a substitute for meat (II., 2). Certain plant foodstuffs, 

 notably vegetable oils, can, if properly prepared, be used as efficient 

 substitutes for animal foodstuffs (II., 2 and 3) ; dairy produce 

 can be used more widely to replace meat and animal fats, and the 

 consumption of those products that contain a larger proportion 

 of the nourishing elements in milk than does butter, can be extended 

 (II., 2) ; pig-meat can be economically used to replace in some 

 measure both beef and mutton (II., 5) ; waste in many of its forms 

 can be reduced (II., 4) ; and the effectiveness of the supplies avail- 

 able to a given population can be increased by securing a more 

 equal distribution between the different social classes (II., 4). 

 Some of these changes, if adopted, may become more or less per- 

 manent with favourable results. 



The duration of the future shortage is uncertain owing to the 

 impossibility of forecasting the working of the various determining 

 factors, whether favourable or unfavourable to increased supplies 

 relative to effective demand. If European populations are much 

 poorer at the close of the present war, the effective demand may 

 fall as compared with the pre-war level, and in this case the need 

 for increased supplies would disappear, temporarily at any rate. 

 The premiss adopted in this enquiry, however, is that demand will 



