SOME EFFECTS OF THE \YAR 313 



more than a temporary phase ; there is no real shortage at 

 present of cereal-producing land throughout the world, but there 

 is now, and there may be for some time after the war. a shortage 

 of the necessary labour in the crop-producing areas, and of the 

 means of transport from them to the centres of dense population 

 and of specialised animal industries. So long as such limiting 

 factors exist, the production and transport of fcedstuffs will be 

 sacrificed to that of food crops, the consumption of which will be 

 all the greater if animal foodstuffs are limited in quantity. 



It is difficult to estimate at the present time (1918) how the 

 world's mercantile fleets will stand at the close of the war, but 

 there is good reason to suppose that the)' will be inadequate for 

 the carrying trade required of them. A number of vessels, it is 

 true, will be released gradually from the naval services of the various 

 belligerent powers, but, on the other hand, there will be a great 

 shortage of raw materials in most European countries to be made 

 good from other parts of the world. A considerable arrears, there- 

 fore, of carrying trade in raw materials required urgently for 

 manufacturing industries, will demand execution almost immedi- 

 ately upon the conclusion of peace. The pressure upon shipping 

 space in this period after the war may not last very long, because 

 the high freights to be earned will serve as a great stimulus to the 

 construction of new ships, and the capacity of the world's ship- 

 building yards will probably have been considerably increased 

 during the war-period. So long, however, as there is a shortage 

 of shipping space, and freights remain high, the full development 

 of animal industries to their pre-war scale will be distinctly hindered 

 in all those countries that require to supplement their home pro- 

 duction of feedstuffs by importations. In the long run, that is, 

 by the time that shipping transport has become normal, it may be 

 that the production of animal foodstuffs throughout the world will 

 have increased through the war conditions of shipping shortage, 

 because, in the meantime, as already noted, animal industries are 

 likely to be more widely established in the more favoured of the 

 newer countries. 



A fourth factor is that of the probable extensive emigration from 

 Europe after the war. It is thought that the desire to emigrate 

 will be widespread and strong among ex-soldiers and others, not 

 only in the United Kingdom, but in other European countries as 

 well, though the shortage of shipping accommodation and limited 

 financial resources may hinder for a time the movement of many 

 overseas. On the whole, emigration from Europe is likely to result 

 in an increase in the production of animal and other foodstuffs in 

 the world at large ; not only are greater numbers of the emigrants 

 likely to be employed in agriculture in their new homes than if they 

 remained in Europe, but the production per worker is greater both 

 in quantity and in value in the newer countries than in Europe. 

 It has been pointed out above 1 that increased surplus production 



1 See Part lit., Chap. ii. 



