THE FUTURE OF TRANSOCEANIC TELEPHONY 15 



estimates can be made at this time. However, even applying annual charges 

 somewhat higher than have commonly been used for cables, it appears that 

 the total cost per telephone circuit for the system of two cables with associ- 

 ated equipment will be comparable with that of prospective short-wave 

 radio systems. A considerable increment of cost of cable over that of radio 

 would be justified by the better quality of transmitted speech and the very 

 significant advantage of privacy. Added to this is the value of the cable 

 as a supplement to radio systems to provide against their failure. Indeed 

 it is possible that once the cable were in service radio would be looked on as 

 a supplement to it. 



The comparison of cable and radio telephony is not easy to make. It is 

 the composite of cable and radio that assures continuity of service since 

 while radio is sensitive to disturbances accompanying magnetic storms, and 

 cable less so, radio service is not so exposed to the possibility of interruption 

 by mechanical accident or malicious intent. An advantage of radio systems 

 is their flexibility, whereby new routes can be established or old routes 

 abandoned without incurring excessive costs. Further, provision can be 

 made for expansion of radio facilities as required without having to install 

 so large a complement of circuits at the outset. The prospect of the com- 

 bined radio and cable system is a happy one in that it affords the advan- 

 tage of both types of facility. 



In the foregoing discussion I have treated the transoceanic telephone 

 problem principally as the transatlantic problem and more particularly as 

 the problem of connecting North America and Great Britain. Community 

 of language and many interests lend particular emphasis to that connection, 

 but it is, after all, only one of the many transoceanic links required to build 

 the world-wide telephone network of the future. 



When we come to look at other situations, the relative advantages of 

 radio and cable weigh differently. Shortwave radio links have a great 

 advantage in affording direct connection between points on the globe far 

 apart, and the tendency has been to establish short-wave connections 

 directly between large centers rather than through extensive land-line 

 links, particularly where political boundaries have been involved. There 

 has thus grown up an extensive network of single-channel short-wave 

 radio connections operated at low power, giving good service part of the time 

 but not to be depended on all of the time. Most of these connections are 

 over routes which would not support broad-band systems such as I have 

 discussed. The introduction of broad-band methods for transoceanic radio 

 telephony will tend to favor centralizing radio traffic at a smaller number of 

 more important radio terminals, but it is hardly to be expected that all 

 transoceanic radio traffic will thus be concentrated. Even with radio 

 systems dispersed rather than centralized, broad-band cable may still 



