18 BELL SYSTEM TECHNICAL JOURNAL 



the better measure will doubtless depend greatly on costs that can be 

 achieved but I do not think that I can fairly be accused of excessive optimism 

 in predicting a demand for forty or more telephone circuits in the reasonably 

 near future if full advantage is taken of technical possibilities already in 

 view to decrease costs and improve reliability of service. 



In estimating the demand for growth it may be a mistake to attach too 

 much importance to cost of service. Speed and reliability are, within limits, 

 just as important. When it becomes possible to pick up a telephone and 

 get a reply within two minutes, which is about the normal time for a long 

 distance connection in the United States, and when the connection provides 

 the clarity and freedom from noise of a local telephone call, then the trans- 

 oceanic telephone service will, I believe, be used to a degree not even ap- 

 proached at present. 



To provide this indicated increase in number of circuits, and to approach 

 land-line standards of reliability and quality of service will demand utiliza- 

 tion of all three types of transmission systems: short-wave, long-wave and 

 repeatered cable. Considerations of cost, flexibility and directness of 

 connection suggest that the bulk of the transatlantic business will be handled 

 on the short waves, but any service important enough to justify so large a 

 group of circuits as has been estimated would have to live up to a higher 

 standard of reliability than short-wave circuits alone can provide. A 

 cable between America and Britain would provide this reliability, acting 

 as insurance against serious interruptions of service that would result from 

 a simultaneous failure of all the short-wave facilities during periods of 

 magnetic storm. It would in addition set a high standard of transmission 

 performance in competition with short waves. The cable and short- 

 wave circuit groups plus a few long-wave circuits should provide a high 

 degree of reliability and excellent transmission at a level of cost such as 

 would assure the continued growth of the service. 



It may not be necessary to wait until the growth of transatlantic telephone 

 business provides enough traffic to utilize fully a cable of the type described. 

 When once the engineers are ready to give reasonable assurance of the cable, 

 I believe that it will not have to await complete economic justification, 

 because of the tremendous importance which it would have in insuring 

 privacy and continuity of transatlantic telephone service. What the cable 

 reaUy waits on is technical development. To achieve this is fairly straight- 

 forward, since there do not appear to be any insurmountable difficulties. 

 There is still much to be done and many difficulties must be overcome before 

 the broad-band repeatered cable can be installed but it does not impress 

 me as a more difficult problem than many that have been solved in the past. 

 In developing this picture of transoceanic telephony I have endeavored 

 to stay within the realm of engineering fact, and not to count on products 



