2.2.5 Evaluation procedure: Identify study 

 area. 



The study area is the area within which signifi- 

 cant project impacts will accrue from the use of 

 M&l water supplies, including areas that will receive 

 direct benefits and/or incur costs from the provi- 

 sion of M&l water supply. 



2.2.6 Evaluation procedure: Estimate future 

 M&l water supplies. 



Prepare an analysis of all sources of supply ex- 

 pected to be available to the M&l water user. Data 

 may be obtained from various sources, including 

 water utilities. State and local planning agencies, 

 and State water resources agencies. This analysis 

 should be by time period and include existing water 

 supplies, institutional arrangements, additional 

 water supplies, probability of water supply, and 

 water quality. 



2.2.7 Evaluation procedure: Project future M&l 

 water use. 



Project future water use by sector in considera- 

 tion of seasonal variation. Base projections on an 

 analysis of those factors that may determine vari- 

 ations in levels of water use. 



(a) Sector analysis. Project future water use for 

 the same time periods as for the supply projections 

 for each of the following sectors: Residential (in- 

 clude indoor use and outdoor uses such as lawn ir- 

 rigation and car washing); commercial (include 

 water use for retail and wholesale trade, offices, 

 hospitals, schools, medical laboratories, restau- 

 rants, service industries, etc.); industrial (include all 

 water used by manufacturing industries as an input 

 in the production process); and additional uses (in- 

 clude public service use — for example, fire protec- 

 tion — and unaccounted-for losses). 



(b) Analysis by time of use. Identify seasonal vari- 

 ations in use for each of the above sectors and 

 maximum day use for the system for each season. 



(c) Related factors analysis. (1) Identify the deter- 

 minants of demand for each sector. Use such de- 

 terminants as price of water and sewer service; 

 income; number and type of housing units and pop- 

 ulation per unit; industrial mix; and level of econom- 

 ic activity. Explain the variable projection of these 

 factors as well as the extent to which they influ- 

 ence projection of water use in various sectors. 



(2) Determine the relationship expected to exist 

 between future levels of water use and the relevant 

 determinants of water demand. Develop and use a 

 forecast or forecasts of future levels of the determi- 



nants to project alternative future water use by 

 sector and explain the choice of the particular fore- 

 cast used. 



(d) Aggregation of projections. Aggregate sepa- 

 rate projections for each sector to a single projec- 

 tion by time period. (This should not, however, be 

 viewed as a deterrent to meeting the needs of each 

 sector by separate alternatives.) 



2.2.8 Evaluation procedure: Identify the deficit 

 between future water supplies and use. 



Compare projected water use with future water 

 supplies to determine whether any deficits exist in 

 the study area. Make an analysis of the intensity, 

 frequency, and duration of the expected deficits. 

 Address deficits in three basic options: (a) Reduce 

 projected water use by implementation of nonstruc- 

 tural or conservation measures that are not part of 

 the without-project condition; (b) increase and/or 

 more efficiently use water supplies through structur- 

 al measures; and (c) accept and plan to manage 

 water supply shortages. Plans generally are formu- 

 lated to include some or all of these options. 



2.2.9 Evaluation procedure: Identify 

 alternatives without Federal plan. 



Identify alternative plans that are likely to be im- 

 plemented by communities and/or industries in the 

 absence of any Federal alternative. Test various al- 

 ternatives to the Federal plans for acceptability, ef- 

 fectiveness, efficiency, and completeness as de- 

 fined in Chapter I, section 6.2(c). These plans 

 should be identified through analysis of the total 

 water resources of the region, allowing for present 

 and expected competing uses. 



(a) Consideration of alternative plans is not limit- 

 ed to those that would completely eliminate the 

 projected gap between supply and demand. Plans 

 that do not completely satisfy water supply objec- 

 tives should also be considered. Include in such 

 plans measures to minimize and allocate shortages 

 when they occur (drought management measures). 

 Balance the increased risk of occasional shortages 

 against the savings from lesser investments that 

 would increase the probability of occasional short- 

 ages. The costs of shortages include the costs of 

 implementing drought management measures and 

 the costs of related public health and safety meas- 

 ures. 



(b) Alternative plans need not be based on the 

 development of a single source of supply at one 

 time. They may consist of the development of a 

 single source or the conjunctive development of 



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