2.8.5 Evaluation procedure: Define the study 

 area. 



Determine changes in recreation use and value 

 resulting from alternative plans through the analysis 

 of without-project and with-project conditions in the 

 study area over the prescribed period of analysis. 

 The impacts should relate to the geographical rec- 

 reation "market" defined by the location of actual 

 and potential user populations. Definition of the 

 study area should be justified with respect to the 

 particular characteristics and quality of the site and 

 the availability of similar alternative recreation op- 

 portunities. Reference to statistical evidence re- 

 garding the spatial distribution of trip generation is 

 encouraged. 



lated land resources providing similar or comple- 

 mentary types of recreation within the study area. 



(b) Forecasting potential future participation in 

 recreation activities for the study area involves four 

 steps: (1) Collect data on explanatory variables that 

 influence the demand for recreation activities; (2) 

 Relate potential use to these variables by means of 

 some use estimating techniques as described in 

 2.8.9; (3) Forecast values of the explanatory varia- 

 bles over the period of analysis. Justify projections 

 and explain any simplifying assumptions. Reference 

 to statistical evidence on trends is encouraged; (4) 

 Calculate expected use for the study area using the 

 values obtained in Step (3) and the relationships 

 determined in Step (2). 



2.8.6 Evaluation procedure: Estimate 

 recreation resource. 



(a) Include in estimates of the recreation re- 

 source capacity for the study area all sites (see 

 2.8.3(b)) that provide recreation activities similar to 

 those displaced or provided by the project. The rec- 

 reation resource in the study area is the system of 

 water and related land recreation sites that influ- 

 ence the demand for the proposed project and are 

 influenced in turn by the demand at the existing 

 site. 



(b) Include in the inventory of water and related 

 land recreation sites in this study area those Feder- 

 al, State, county, local, and private sites that are in 

 varying stages of development or that are author- 

 ized and likely to be developed in the forecast 

 period. 



(c) Identify the ability of recreation alternatives to 

 provide different recreation activities and assess 

 the quality of the alternative recreation experiences. 



2.8.7 Evaluation procedure: Forecast potential 

 recreation use in the study area. 



Potential use is the expected visitation at prevail- 

 ing prices unconstrained by supply. Forecast of 

 total recreation use in the study area should be 

 made for each activity currently provided at the pro- 

 ject site and for each activity proposed in the plan 

 or project. The potential use for a specified outdoor 

 water and related land recreation activity will 

 depend on the size and characteristics of the study 

 area population and the availability of the specified 

 recreation activity and other types of recreation in 

 the study area. 



(a) The recreation use of the site's resources will 

 depend not only on the attributes of the site and its 

 proximity to population centers, but also on its loca- 

 tion in relation to the location of other water and re- 



2.8.8 Evaluation procedure: Determine the 

 without-project condition. 



Determine the without-project condition for the 

 study area on the basis of a comparison of the 

 available recreation resources as specified in 2.8.6 

 and the recreation resource use as specified in 

 2.8.7 for each activity currently provided at the pro- 

 ject site and each activity proposed in the plan or 

 project. Compare the capacities of all sites, includ- 

 ing the site without the proposed project, to pro- 

 duce recreation activities with the expected 

 demand for each activity. 



2.8.9 Evaluation procedure: Forecast 

 recreation use with project. 



(a) General. Forecast recreation use with the pro- 

 ject as a basis for estimating project recreation 

 values. Project use over time by calculating the 

 change in use induced by anticipated changes in 

 the variables that determine use. Explain values 

 employed for projecting future demand and any 

 simplifying assumptions. For the capacity method 

 described in paragraph (b)(4) of this section, use is 

 constant over time as determined by the capacity 

 constraint. Explain use projections and any simplify- 

 ing assumptions. Reference to statistical projec- 

 tions of recreation participation is encouraged. 



(b) Use estimating techiniques. Use one or more 

 of the following approaches for estimating recrea- 

 tion use for the with-project and/or without-project 

 conditions. The use of any other method should be 

 justified as conforming to the characteristics listed 

 in 2.8.2(b). References to statistical estimates are 

 encouraged. 



(1) Regional use estimating models. Regional use 

 estimating models are statistical models that relate 

 use to the relevant determinants based on data 

 from existing recreation sites in the study area. The 



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