LAND AND OTHER AGENTS OF PRODUCTION 20 1 



will be nearer 50 per cent. That this is not an overestimate is indi- 

 cated by the fact that during the last fifty years the improved farm 

 land in this country has advanced in round figures from 113,000,000 

 acres to 415,000,000 acres, an increase of 302,000,000 acres, or nearly 

 370 per cent. At such a rate of increase, the agricultural area of this 

 country in 1950 would require an additional area of over 1,000,000,000 

 acres and would include nearly 80 per cent of the total land area of 

 the United States. 



With more intensive methods of cultivation larger yields will 

 undoubtedly be obtained from the same area, yet the area itself under 

 agricultural crops will have to be increased, especially if we are to 

 remain an exporting country. This is well shown in the case of some 

 of the older countries. Thus in Belgium the arable land forms 63 per 

 cent of the total land area, in Denmark 68, in France 48, and in Ger- 

 many 47. Still, these countries are not exporters of cereals, although 

 their methods of cultivation are highly developed. France is espe- 

 cially interesting as a criterion, because its methods are most intensive 

 and it is the only country that is self-sustaining; it produces 98 per 

 cent of all the cereals which it consumes. There is little doubt that 

 our population in the next fifty years will reach at least 150,000,000, 

 or about 50 persons per square mile. Whether the acreage of 

 improved farm land will increase at a much faster rate than the popu- 

 lation, as has been the case in the past, or whether it will grow at the 

 same or even a slower rate than the population, the future alone can 

 tell; but increase it must. 



The Bureau of Statistics of the Department of Agriculture esti- 

 mated in 1900 that upon the basis of our present actual consumption 

 as a people, disregarding entirely our export trade, our country will 

 require by the year 1931 the following additional acreage: for wheat, 

 I 335 00 J 00 acres; for corn, 66,000,000 acres; for oats, 23,700,000 

 acres; for the minor cereals, 10,000,000 acres; and for hay, 40,500,000 

 acres; a total of 153,700,000 acres, without providing for the propor- 

 tionately increased consumption of vegetables, fruits, and other 

 products. 



The amount of farm land as compared with other classes of land 

 is not determined, however, solely by economic conditions, but also 

 by natural conditions. Thus in mountainous Switzerland, only 17 

 per cent of the land is cultivated, and in Sweden and Norway, situated 

 in an unfavorable climate and with a scanty population, the propor- 

 tion of arable land is 8 . 7 per cent and i . 3 per cent, respectively. In 



