440 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 



effect of this one short crop was to advance the average price for the 

 five years 2 1 per cent. In the fourth half-decade there was no change 

 in the area per capita, but an addition of seven-tenths of a bushel to 

 the per capita supply, and an accumulating surplus of such dimensions 

 as to force prices to the lowest point known. The price of corn in the 

 home markets, December; 1889, was n per cent lower than ever 

 before reported. Such has been the effect of the great crop of 1889, 

 following one of nearly equal magnitude in 1888. 



The history of American farming for twenty years is, in brief, that 

 as the area in cultivation has increased, so has the product per capita, to 

 be followed by ever-declining prices and diminishing returns per acre. 



If, in the period ending in 1874, with a cattle supply of 62 to 100 

 people, the supply of corn less than 25 bushels per capita, that of 

 wheat and oats less than 6 . 5 bushels, and the domestic consumption 

 of pork 75 pounds for each inhabitant, all the requirements of the 

 people for bread, meat, spirits, and provender were fully and promptly 

 met, it is quite apparent that, estimating consumption per capita as 

 15 per cent greater than then, the present supply of beef is sufficient 

 for 71,000,000 people, of swine for 76,000,000, of wheat for 79,000,000, 

 of corn for 70,500,000, and of oats for more than 100,000,000. 



The logical conclusion from the evidence offered is that the 

 troubles of the farmer are due to the fact that there are altogether 

 too many farms, too many cattle and swine, too many bushels of 

 corn, wheat, rye, oats, barley, buckwheat, and potatoes, too many 

 tons of hay, and too great a production of nearly all other farm 

 products for the number of consumers. 



137. LIMITED SUPPLY AND HIGH PRICES 1 



One of the outstanding facts of the social history of the last half- 

 century is the rapid growth of large cities. The proportion of the 

 total population of the United States living in cities of 8,000 inhab- 

 itants and over increased from 12.5 in 1850 to 33.1 in 1900. In 

 Massachusetts only about one-third of the population was living in 

 cities in 1850, while more than three-fourths of the population is found 

 in such cities at the present time. 



In general, there has taken place a great decline in the number of 

 persons engaged in agricultural pursuits, and a corresponding increase 

 in the number of those employed in urban occupations: (i) a marked 



1 Adapted from the Report of the Massachusetts Commission on the Cost of 

 Living, May, 1910. 



