86 FARM MANAGEMENT 



other states. There is no reason why an average of fifty 

 years of apples should pay better than other crops. Ab- 

 normally high profits are the peril of the industry. 



The fact that apples are high in price is no indication 

 that they will be high when the proposed new orchard comes 

 into bearing, nor are low profits an indication that profits 

 will be low. The only way to tell whether to plant apples 

 is to study the comparative numbers of old and young 

 trees, and the present rate of planting. 



According to the 1910 census, there were in the United 

 States 151,000,000 apple trees of bearing age, and 

 66,000,000 not of bearing age. These numbers do 

 not appear to indicate over planting, but the danger 

 at the present time is that we have just entered upon a 

 period of planting, and it appears that too many are likely 

 to be planted before the young trees come into bearing. 

 It is unfortunate that the trees not of bearing age are 

 not well distributed. Most of them are of very recent 

 plantings. 



From the figures thus far available, it appears that the 

 periods of over- and under-production of apples last about 

 twenty to twenty-five years, as it takes this time to get 

 enough trees raised to bearing age to cause overproduc- 

 tion, and about another equal period of little planting 

 before prices rise high enough to stimulate another plant- 

 ing wave. It would appear to be the part of wisdom for 

 a farmer to start planting or buying orchards about the 

 middle of the low-price period when every one is dis- 

 couraged, and to stop planting 'at the time when prices 

 are so high that every one is planting. Some farmers do 

 follow this practice. The farmer who planted in the 

 eighties has already been rewarded. 



The same sort of cycle occurs with all farm products. 



