CHOICE OF A REGION 497 



but it is absolutely baseless. Forests hold back the soil 

 water so that the streams are regulated, but forests have 

 no effect on rainfall. There is not space here to give the 

 proofs, but the references are given at the end of this 

 chapter. 



304. Compensating cycles in weather. Another 

 error that affects not only the purchase of farms, but the 

 planning of farm work, is the belief held by nearly every one 

 that there are compensating cycles in weather. There is a 

 slight relationship between the weather to-day and what is 

 likely to come in the next few days, but no relationship 

 for next month. Persons think that if we are having good 

 weather, we must pay for it later ; if it is too dry now, there 

 will be an unusual amount of rain later. If the summer is 

 hot, the winter will be cold. If this is a dry year, next year 

 will be wet. These ideas make a very nice theory, but there 

 is absolutely nothing in them. The kind of weather to ex- 

 pect is the average of the region, but one should be prepared 

 for the variations of the region. A wet year is just as 

 likely to be followed by another wet year as by a dry one. 

 It is most likely to be followed by a normal year. Figure 

 111 is typical in this respect. Twenty-one times a wet or 

 dry year has been followed by its opposite, and 23 times it 

 has been repeated. For a period of 58 years in Nebraska, 

 wet or dry years have been followed by the opposite 28 

 times, and have had the wet or dry year repeated 30 times. 

 The same point holds for all climatic factors for any region. 

 We do not " have to pay " for our good weather by having 

 bad weather later, nor do we have any reason for expecting 

 a reward in good weather because we have been having 

 bad weather. We should always expect the normal 

 weather of the region and season, and be prepared to meet 

 the usual variations either way from the normal. 



2K 



