PRESENT PROBLEMS 221 



principles. All this helps to make good conduct, but it is not a 

 safe basis for prediction. 



We cannot accept this traditional interpretation because tradition 

 has been transformed by its growth. Still less can we accept an 

 "economic" interpretation of current events because other than 

 economic causes have helped to shape the present. The " all eco- 

 nomic " or material interpretation of the present is defective because 

 it neglects the effect of heredity and tradition on human conduct. 

 The traditional or idealistic interpretation is likewise defective 

 because it neglects the changes in economic conditions that make 

 present sequences in events different from those of the past. Through 

 the economic interpretation of the past the similarities and differ- 

 ences in present and past conditions are brought to light" and the 

 limitations to social prediction become manifest. 



Nor is economic interpretation the method of economists as 

 opposed to that of historians and of sociologists. Economists are 

 bound as tightly as other thinkers by the chains of tradition. The 

 rapid development of the Ricardian tradition is evidence of this. 

 Nor is the new thought exclusively the work of economists. Von 

 Ihering's Evolution of the Aryan stands the tests of economic 

 interpretation better than does the work of Karl Marx. The theory 

 of exploitation is the transformation of a class tradition into a form 

 of idealism. This is of social importance, but not an economic law. 



I give below some of the canons of economic interpretation, so that 

 the validity of social creeds may be more easily measured. Economic 

 interpretation tests these as science tests the miraculous in nature. 



(1) Like economic causes produce like social effects. 



(2) Progress depends on the increase of resources. 



(3) An economic interpretation of past events must precede an 

 historical interpretation of present events. 



(4) Economic interpretation must precede social prediction. 



(5) Social causes have economic antecedents. 



(6) A study of economic epochs should precede a study of nations 

 and races. 



(7) Traditions blend which in their union strengthen and elevate 

 each other. 



(8) The greatness of men is due not to their moments of inspira- 

 tion, but to the conflicting disciplines to which they have 

 been subjected. 



Much of the present confusion of thought would be obviated 

 if it were kept in mind that progress depends on an increase of 

 resources. In the study of an epoch or nation it must first be deter- 

 mined whether resources are decaying or improving. The decline 

 of Rome was inevitable as soon as Italian resources fell off. Rome 

 could extend its rule by conquest and make individuals and even 



