July 1, 189G.] 



KNOWLEDGE. 



161 



Fig. 1. — Death Rates of Males in different Age- 

 gi'oups (England). 



outset. The group thirty-five to forty-five, as also the two 

 groups over seveuty-five, show little change in the final 

 result. 



This rise in 

 the death rate of 

 adults — amount- 

 ing, in those 

 three groups, to 

 about six, twelve, 

 and seven per 

 cent, respec- 

 tively from first 

 to last — presents 

 an important 

 problem in 

 sociology. 



The great 

 world of London 

 presents many 

 startling con- 

 trasts in the 

 conditions of life. 

 It is not wonder- 

 ful to find the 

 ravages of death 

 much more se- 

 vere in one part 

 than another. 

 Here are two 

 curves (upper 

 part of Fig. 2) 

 showing the his- 

 tory of the death 

 rates of East and 

 West London 

 since 1851. Not only is the death rate of the Western Dis- 

 trict considerably uuder the other (say three to five in one 

 thousand), but the improvement is greater and more con- 

 tinuous. The Eastern 

 death rate rose in 1866 

 to 34-0 through the 

 visitation of cholera, 

 which chiefly afl'ected 

 East Loudon ; three- 

 fourths of the total of 

 deaths ( three thousand 

 six hundred and ninety- 

 six) taking place in 

 Eastern parishes. In 

 185-1 — another cholera 

 year^the difference in 

 mortality of the two 

 districts was much less. 

 It might possibly sur- 

 prise some people to 

 hear that the death rate 

 for Ireland is generally 

 less than that for 

 England and Wales. 

 We must remember 

 that the population is 

 more largely rural. In 

 the lower part of Fig. 2 

 (dotted curve) is shown 

 the course of the Irish 

 death rate since 1861, 

 and it is smoothed in 

 the continuous curve (as 

 before). Above are the smoothed curves of the death rates 



Fig. 2. — Death Kates (London, 

 England, and Ireland) 



in England and in London. While the two latter curves 

 have been going down almost continuously since 1866, 

 the Irish curve shows an upward tendency from about 

 the same date, followed by a nearly stationary condition 

 since about 1875. 



Here are the first and last figures of these smoothed 

 curves : — 



London 1857, 23-8; 1890, 20-1 



England 1857,22-1; 1889, 18'9 



Ireland ... 1868, 16-8; 1889, 18-2 



It is interesting to 

 compare the death 

 rates of various 

 European countries 

 through a series of 

 years. Here (Fig. 3) 

 is a group of curves 

 showing the actual 

 variations for Eng- 

 land, Scotland, Bel- 

 gium, Prussia, Aus- 

 tria, and France ( each 

 with its separate 

 scale). 



There are some very 

 conspicuous years in 

 some of these curves, 

 accounted for chiefly 

 by cholera, or war, 

 or I as in the case of 

 1866, in Austria and 

 Prussia) by both. 



In the general trend 

 of most of these 

 curves one may detect 

 a considerable simila- 

 rity. Thus we may 

 make out by the eye, mo s 6t> s ,■» '.; ^o s so a 



or by smoothing Fig. 3.— Death Kates iu some 



methods, a long wave European Countries. 



rising from about 



1860 to a crest something like a decade later, followed 

 by a long downward slope, interrupted latterly, in some 

 cases, by mortality from influenza. It would appear 

 as though some common cause (possibly of climatic 



,, nature) were at 



work giving rise 

 to this general 

 u n i f r m i t y of 

 variation. 



We have had 

 a striking in- 

 stance lately of 

 the effect of cold 

 and mild winter 

 weather on our 

 mortality. The 

 first quarter of 



1895 was in- 

 tensely cold ; the 

 first quarter of 



1896 very mild. 



to tl IZ f3 



Fig. 4. — Death Rate in Weeks of First 

 Quarter of 18!t5 and 1896 (London). 



Here is a diagram (Fig. i) showing the London death 

 rate in the thirteen weeks of those two quarters. In 

 the fifth to the tenth week of 1895 the rate quickly rose 

 till it was over forty : whereas in the first quarter of 1896 

 it did not reach twenty-two. The influence of temperature 

 on health and life, however, is a question of no little 

 complexity. 



