THE SMALL MARKET 227 



rabi grains, and (2) the anticipation of the failure of 

 the spring {rabi) crop of 1897. The extent of the 

 failure of this spring crop is indicated by the height to 

 which harvest prices attained in this year, whereas 

 the average annual {i.e., bazaar) price of 1897 is 

 brought down by the low prices prevailing in the 

 later months of the year after seasonable rain in July, 

 August, and September. 



Enough has, I hope, been said to show that the 

 cultivator is nowadays actually making a better 

 bargain with the grain -dealer than he did in the 

 earlier periods for which we have evidence. It may 

 be, as Messrs. McConaghey and Smeaton believed, 

 that the grain-dealer was for a while able to secure 

 more than a reasonable share of the rapid rise in 

 value of agricultural produce; but the development 

 of the country and the regular construction of roads 

 and railways were forces upon the side of the culti- 

 vator. The development of the means of communica- 

 tion was the cause that all the little local markets, 

 with their different levels of prices, were merged into 

 one great market, in which prices remained compara- 

 tively steady. The little market, for the very reason 

 of its smallness, was constantly liable to be glutted ; 

 but the great market of to-day has to satisfy the 

 necessities of so large an area, that a small reduction 

 in the price will produce an enormous increase in the 

 demand, and the satiety level can hardly ever be 

 reached. Moreover, the whole area serving the small 

 market was exposed to similar climatic conditions, 

 whereas the market of to-day is composed of tracts 

 in which the rainfall has been abundant and of tracts 

 in which it has failed, and the years are few in which 

 the season is uniformly favourable over all the area of 

 the market. A study of the charts and prices for the 

 early periods will, I think, show that the profusion of 

 harvest prices was due to a temporary glut in the 

 market : all the cultivators of the neighbourhood 



15—2 



