THE INFLUENCE OF CROPS UPON BUSINESS 1 1 



be overstocked, and the price of cotton likewise underwent a seri- 

 ous decline. There was no new development of business, no great 

 revival of prosperity after the harvests of 1882. Although the 

 crops of wheat and cotton were the most abundant that America 

 had ever known, the following year was one of " steadily increas- 

 ing depression." So also two years later, in 1884, the American 

 wheat and corn crops once more bulked larger than ever. All 

 previous records for their size were broken ; but here again the 

 records of the rest of the world for output were also broken, and 

 the price of wheat in consequence declined to the lowest level it 

 had yet touched during the century, and the value of the total crop 

 in the end proved less than it had been in any year since 1878. 

 The agricultural output in America in 1884, as in 1882, would 

 have led one to expect a fresh outburst of general activity, but the 

 movement in the latter case as in the former was checked by the 

 concurrent abundance abroad, and the year that followed in each 

 case remained one of marked depression. 



2. In the second place, even where the country is blessed with 

 the desired conjunction of domestic crop abundance and foreign 

 crop failures, the revival of business activity may be prevented by 

 the operation of other influences. 



In 1 89 1 the wheat crop failed everywhere in Europe, and this 

 occurred on the top of two serious harvest shortages in 1889 and 

 1890. At the same time the American crop proved larger than 

 ever, proved larger, in fact, by one hundred million bushels 

 than the record crop before that date. The export of grain ran 

 even beyond the enormous exports of 1879 and 1880, and reached 

 in the ensuing year the highest level ever known before or since. 

 The cotton fields also turned out by far the largest crop on record 

 up to that time, and our exports of cotton exceeded all precedents. 

 The corn crop was also abundant, being, with one exception, the 

 largest ever harvested. And yet, with all these favoring condi- 

 tions, with bumper crops in all lines in this country and scant 

 crops abroad, with record-breaking shipments of wheat and cotton, 

 with the heaviest export trade ever known in the history of our 

 country, and the most favorable balance of trade in a decade, there 

 was no extraordinary outburst of activity in general trade, no such 



