DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED STATES 323 



in farms increased only 4.8 per cent. Further, this increase of 

 10.9 per cent in the number of farms accounts very largely for 

 the increased acreage of improved land in farms (15.4 per cent), 

 as also the increased acreage of land in crops (9.9 per cent). In 

 contrast to the increase in the number of farms, the increase in 

 the rural population was 11.2 per cent. It would appear that the 

 increase in the population of towns and villages with less than 

 2500 inhabitants was not much greater than the increase in the 

 number of farms. In contrast to this comparatively small increase 

 in the number of farms and in the rural population, the increase in 

 the urban population amounted to 34.8 per cent. With these facts 

 before us, it is easy to see that agriculture had reached practically 

 its limit in 1900, so far as following the old method of expansion 

 was concerned, and also that the four movements to which I re- 

 ferred had not gotten well enough started to keep pace with the 

 increase in population which is rapidly concentrating in cities. 



During the nineteenth century the farmers produced very much 

 more than the people of the United States could consume, and 

 the surplus was shipped to foreign countries. As agriculture 

 developed less rapidly and as the proportion of the people who 

 lived in cities increased more rapidly, the exportation of the raw 

 materials of agriculture necessarily decreased. We have now 

 reached a stage in the history of this country when farmers in 

 average years do not produce much more of the raw materials 

 used for food, beverage, and clothing than is needed within the 

 country. In poor years the production may not in the future 

 equal the demands of the consumers. In exceptionally good 

 years it will be possible to export a considerable amount of raw 

 material or reserve it for the bad years to follow. I think it is 

 very doubtful whether the four new movements towards agricul- 

 tural development which have been indicated above will be more 

 than sufficient to keep pace with the movement of population. 

 If, by inaugurating these four movements, it is impossible to 

 keep pace with the population, it will be necessary in the 

 future to resort to the importation of supplies. 



Inasmuch as development during the first decade of the new 

 century was not as rapid in agriculture as in other industries, the 



