DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED STATES 335 



increase in the quantity of land in farms and improved land in 

 farms) farm property has been capitalized anew at a figure 

 sufficiently high to take advantage of the changed conditions. 



In the discussion I naturally have been forced to use the fig- 

 ures for 1909 and 1899, since these are the only years for which 

 definite and reasonably accurate statistics are available. The sta- 

 tistics for the other years are nothing better than estimates made 

 by various individuals or government bureaus. It is best to hold 

 to the absolute figures secured from the farmers, and therefore I 

 shall limit the study to these two years. After a very extensive 

 study of climatic conditions and general agricultural conditions 

 for the two years thus necessarily selected I am ready to state 

 my belief that they were typical or representative years, not 

 abnormal in any material respect. In some districts conditions 

 were exceptionally bad or exceptionally good in 1899, and the 

 same was true of 1909. For the United States as a whole and 

 for all crops which it is possible to bring into the analysis here 

 presented, these years are as comparable as it is possible to find 

 two years any distance apart. 



It is true that the hope has been, and I believe I may say that 

 the belief has been, that agriculture was increasing rapidly, if not 

 keeping pace with the increase of population. The people of the 

 United States have been more than willing to supply the Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture, state agricultural experiment stations, and a 

 great variety of agricultural schools, colleges, and lecturers with 

 all of the funds necessary, believing that all of this pointed 

 towards a larger production of goods as a basis for the food, 

 beverage, and clothing supply of our people. Hundreds of mil- 

 lions of dollars have been expended for this purpose. It may 

 seem that this expenditure has been in vain, since the average 

 production of agriculture has not increased. But without it doubt- 

 less there would have been far-reaching decreases due to depre- 

 ciation of the soil and failure of the farmers to maintain the 

 average production secured when they first took charge. It is 

 not my wish or purpose to discredit these agricultural agencies 

 and institutions, which have been faithfully at work for over half 

 a century. I believe thoroughly in the work which they are doing, 



