736 READINGS IN RURAL ECONOMICS 



so low in 1895, or was it a crop which exceeded by nearly 

 90,000,000 bushels that of any year, with the single exception of 

 1 89 1 , during three decades ? The average farm price of wheat 

 for the three years ending with 1894 was about 30 per cent 

 less than for the three years ending with 1891. Is the gold 

 standard or an increase of 236,000,000 bushels in the annual 

 average of the world's supply the more reasonable explanation ? 

 Obviously, the fall of prices disclosed by such facts cannot be 

 satisfactorily explained by an increase in the value of gold. 



These downward movements in the prices of farm products 

 were severe shocks to agricultural prosperity because they were 

 sudden and unexpected. Compared with the gradual fall of prices 

 that has occurred since 1873, they were relatively far more dis- 

 astrous to farm interests. A rainfall of four inches distributed 

 throughout twenty-four hours may do little or no damage ; but the 

 same precipitation within an hour carries in its wake disaster. 

 What is to be said, then, of the assertion that, owing to a 

 steady fall of prices, there has been no agricultural prosperity 

 since 1873? The most obvious reply is that the statement, in 

 this unqualified form, does not agree with the facts. During the 

 years 1 879-1 884 there was unusual agricultural prosperity, as a 

 comparison of agricultural with general prices will clearly show. 

 A similar comparison shows that 1 888-1 892 were years when 

 farmers were enjoying fair times. This does not mean, of course, 

 that there was an absence of grumbling, or that no one complained 

 of hard times during either of these periods. Judged by this test, 

 indeed, there has never been a time in our country's history when 

 agricultural distress was not the rule and prosperity the exception. 



It is most certainly a sudden rather than a steady fall of prices 

 that entails disaster upon the farmer. As Professor J. B. Clark 

 puts it : 



How does a slow and steady appreciation of any metallic currency affect the 

 relations of business classes? Does it rob borrowers and enrich lenders? Does 

 it favor the consumers by giving low prices and hurt producers in the same de- 

 gree ? Does it tax enterprise and paralyze the nerves of business ? The answer 

 is an emphatic No. Steadiness in the rate of appreciation of money is the sal- 

 vation of business. ... It is changes in the rate of inflation or of contraction 

 that produce marked and damaging effects at the critical points of business life. 



