WHY SILVER CEASES TO BE MONEY. 581 



medium. But this result would not be brought about for a long 

 time, measured by generations rather than by years. Certainly 

 for a series of years international bimetallism, if adopted, would 

 at least be not ineffective. No doubt all this is idle speculation, 

 so far as any political probabilities are concerned. International 

 jealousy, and a sufficient satisfaction in most countries with the 

 existing state of things, make such an agreement impracticable. 

 But this does not answer the question of principle, or show that 

 the wider use of silver is restricted by any natural law. Doubts 

 as to the expediency of the change and unwillingness to enter on 

 hazardous legislation are the serious sources of difficulty for those 

 who demand a free use of silver for currency. 



The real question for the future of silver, then, is one of the 

 expediency and possibility of legislation. It may be freely ad- 

 mitted that if legislation were different, the silver situation would 

 be essentially different. And ultimately legislation will doubt- 

 less respond to the pressure of expediency. If it should appear 

 that the exclusive use of gold works ill, that the failure to use 

 silver causes mischief, and that the wider use of silver would 

 make things better, we may expect that eventually the civilized 

 countries, either by international agreement or by separate legis- 

 lation, will retrace their steps and endeavor to secure the use of 

 both metals. The fundamental question of expediency, again, is 

 one as to the stability of prices and incomes. If under the gold 

 standard there is a steady tendency toward lower prices and lower 

 money incomes, and if such a decline works evil, there is ground 

 for demanding a change. If, on the whole, the disuse of silver is 

 accompanied by no mischievous changes, things may remain, and 

 in all probability will remain, as they are. 



So far as the experience of the past is concerned, it is not to 

 be questioned that in fact there has been a general decline in 

 prices since the date, roughly speaking, when silver began to be 

 discarded and gold became the sole basis of the medium of ex- 

 change. The year 1873 brings at once the high-water mark of 

 general prices and the beginning of the demonetization of silver. 

 During the last twenty years wholesale prices and retail prices 

 have steadily pressed downward. So far there is a prima-facie 

 case for the proposition that it is gold that has appreciated rather 

 than silver that has depreciated. But another equally striking 

 and unquestionable phenomenon of the last twenty years has 

 been that the money incomes of all classes of society have not 

 gone down, but have rather tended upward. Such a movement, 

 combined with the movement for lower prices, simply means 

 that material "prosperity has increased on all hands, that our 

 income in terms of commodities is growing, and that men are 

 getting more in return for their labor. Moreover, it is not to be 



