THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 33 



This fact is of peculiar significance to the public, for if the 

 latter fails to stimulate reforestation generally it will play 

 directly into the hands of the few who are independent of 

 encouragement. 



It is customary, in speculating upon the profits of a second 

 timber crop, "to attempt to reduce it to a financial calculation 

 based upon estimated yield, estimated future values and 

 estimated carrying charges. These considerations are im- 

 portant, but their importance is largely in proportion to the 

 financial weakness of the prospective timber grower. We re- 

 vert again to the practical certainty that unless reforestation 

 is general, the exhaustion of virgin timber will be followed by 

 a shortage, and that the man who has a second crop at that 

 time can obtain a price which will reimburse his carrying 

 charges be they high or low. The cost of overcoming present 

 obstacles will be shifted to the consumer. The possibility of 

 such an investment is determined largely by ability to main- 

 tain a protective system with economy and to bear the expense 

 of this and of heavy taxation during the period of no return. 



In short, the weakness of the ordinary financial calculation 

 upon existing conditions is that it attempts to estimate future 

 stumpage values without knowledge of the true factor which 

 will determine them. This factor is not the probable rise of 

 existing stumpage while it continues to exist, but is the extent 

 of the new-grown supply which will follow it provided exist- 

 ing conditions remain unchanged. It is inconsistent to figure 

 the cost upon almost prohibitive present conditions without 

 also recognizing that such conditions, if continued, will com- 

 pletely change the influences which now determine the market. 



Who Can Afford to Reforest Now 



On the other hand, timber owners have by no means equal 

 opportunity to take advantage of this fact. The productive 

 capacity of their land varies, their taxes vary, the extent and 

 location of their holdings affects the expense of protection 

 against fire, and they have not tbe same facilities for financ- 



