86 PRACTICAL FORESTRY IN 



enough for another crop, or if he is prevented from doing so 

 at some future time by excessive taxation or other prohibi- 

 tion, its disposal value will be greater if it bears young forest 

 growth than if it does not. 



5. Stumpage values are certain to advance greatly and 

 their advance will be governed largely by these factors : 



a. Speculative influence necessarily accompanying the 

 lessening of the nation's and the world's timber supply. 



b. The carrying charges of fire prevention and taxation 

 imposed by the community upon virgin timber, which, since 

 they represent an investment which must be recouped, will 

 either be added in the long run to the price of stumpage ex- 

 actly in the measure of their severity and so transferred to the 

 consumer, or result in rapid cutting and consequently raise 

 the speculative value of that which escapes cutting. (This 

 the consumer will pay also.) 



c. The quantity of new timber grown. 



6. It is probable that future demand for timber will re- 

 imburse the cost of growing it, be this cost high or low 

 within reasonable limits. 



7. This does not mean, however, that the timberland 

 owner will or can generally engage in the business when the 

 cost is excessive. While he could probably make a good profit 

 eventually, such an investment is too heavy and prolonged to 

 be inviting; besides there is the possibility of entire loss by 

 fire. He will naturally compare it with other investments 

 having less disadvantages. For example, since conditions 

 which discourage the growing of new competing forests tend 

 for this very reason to enhance the value of existing forests, 

 he might invest further in the latter instead, with equal 

 ultimate profit and with easier access to his money at any 

 time. 



8. Consequently the growing of timber is promising to the 

 private owner only when the investment can be borne easily. 

 Since it has three forms land value, fire protection, and 

 taxation all must be moderate or, if one or more is high, 

 the rest must be low. 



