FALLACIOUS VALUATIONS 233 



methods. It is intended to plant Scots Pine on grass land 

 worth 10 per acre. It is estimated that the cost of 

 establishing the crop, including cleaning for the first 3 or 4 

 years, and replacing dead trees, will be ,8 an acre; and 

 when 30 years old the thinnings will yield IDS. an acre ; at 

 40 years, 2, los. an acre ; at 50 years, 4 ; at 60 years, $ ; 

 at 70 years, 6, 53. ; and that, when 80 years old, there will 

 be a final crop of 3450 cubic feet, over 6 inches quarter girth 

 measure, which, at 7d. a cubic foot, will yield ;ioo, I2s. ; also, 

 it is assumed that, at the end of the rotation, the value of 

 the land remains unaltered. 



The total number of cubic feet (down to 3 inches top 

 diameter) which will be produced, is estimated at 5050 cubic 

 feet, which gives an average annual production of 63 cubic 

 feet. And the average annual outgoings, over and above any 

 sum received as a sporting rent, are estimated at 2s. an acre. 1 



Now, by adopting the first of these two methods it would 

 appear that the initial outlay of 18 would yield a net 

 annual return of approximately i t 55. 



For the 



Value of final crop _ 100, I2s. 



Number of years in rotation 80 



= i, 5s. (nearly). 



This equals, apparently, nearly 7 per cent interest on the 

 outlay of iS. 



And by the second method, the average annual produc- 

 tion of 63 cubic feet of timber would, at 7d. a cubic foot, be 

 worth i, 1 6s. pd. 



Hence 



The gross annual return equals . . . ^i 16 9 

 Less, for annual outgoings . . . . 020 



The net annual return equals . . . i 14 9 



Now, this i, 145. Qd. equals, apparently, about 9 per 

 cent, interest on the initial outlay of iS. 



Methods, such as these, though plausible, are absolutely 



1 This does not include any sum representing the cost of felling the 

 timber or making up cordwood, or of cleaning the young crop. 



