122 



NATURE 



[December 6, 1894 



are accepted, and not only anonymous but self-contra- 

 dictory ones. Mrs. Piper hypnotised, personated a 

 French physician Dr. Phinuit, who did not know French, 

 and failed to give a satisfactory account of himself. Mrs. 

 riper, during her trance as Dr. Phinuit, gabbled, 

 made chance shots, " tished " for information, and was 

 generally a transparent enough imposition. Yet she 

 occasionally spoke of things she could not, according to 

 the investigators, have obtained a knowledge of by 

 ordinary means. For that they give her credit, and 

 forgive all her failures. Prof. Lodge, apparently eager to 

 believe, compares her utterances to the experience of 

 anyone listening at a telephone : " you hear the dim and 

 meaningless fragments of a city's gossip till back again 

 comes the voice obviously addressed to you, and speaking 

 w:th firmness and decision." Imagine in a real scientific 

 inquiry an investigator pursuing a theory through a com- 

 plicated series of observations, arbitrarily selecting those 

 that advance his views, and calling the others " dim and 

 meaningless until back comes the result obviously ad- 

 dressed to you : " 



As one instance of the absence of scientific method 

 from these discussions, take M. Richet's and Mr. 

 Gumey's experiments with cards. In these experiments 

 an agent looked at the card, and a percipient guessed the 

 suit. M. Richet conducted 2927 trials, and 7S9 correct 

 guesses were made, the theory of probability only granting 

 732. The S.P.R. trials numbered 17.653, with 4760 suc- 

 cesses— 347 in excess of the probable number. Now this is 

 adduced by Mr. Podmore as evidence for telepathy ; we 

 are asked to believe that about once in sixty times — that 

 is the excess above the probable ratio of successes — the 

 mental impression of the agent recorded itself upon the 

 brain of the percipient. Whether during the interval of 

 fifty-nine trials telepathy was in abeyance, Mr. Podmore 

 does not say, and the failure of the American S.P.R. to 

 confirm these results he sets aside because the details of 

 their experiments are not given— an excellent example to 

 the sceptic. Are we to believe that only once in sixty 

 times did the transferred thought surge up into con- 

 -ciousness, or that the transference occurs only at the 

 sixtieth time, or what ? A most obvious collateral test 

 seems to have been altogether overlooked, namely, for 

 someone to guess cards before the agent saw them, and 

 so to ascertain how far pure haphazard guessing of this 

 kind, or guessing on any particular gambler's " system,' 

 may fall away from the theory of probability. The de- 

 ductions of the theory of probability, be it remembered, 

 become certainties only when the number of cases is 

 mfinite. We have no grounds for assuming that in 

 seventeen thousand or seventy thousand, or in any finite 

 nvimber of cases, facts come into coincidence with this 

 theory. In an infinite number of sets of 17,653 trials we 

 might have every possible divergence from the average 

 result up to 17,653 successive failuresor 17,653 successive 

 successes. Taking a number of sets, they may be expected 

 to fluctuate round a mean result in agreement with the 

 theory of probability — that is all. These three sets of ex- 

 periments manifestly prove nothing. And this is how Mr. 

 Podmore prefaces his account of them : " In the follow- 

 ing cases, where the exact nature of the impression 

 received was not apparently classified by the percipient. 

 It may be presumed to have been either of a visual or 

 NO. I 3 10, VOL. 51] 



an auditor)- nature.'' He begs the question, and in a 

 book addressed to the untrained mind of the general 

 reader 1 Nothing could show more clearly the tendency 

 of this psychical research to accept as evidence what is 

 really not evidence at all, its lack of critical capacity and 

 severe confirmatory inquiry, and the missionary spirit of 

 its exposition. 



Enough has been said to show the essential difference 

 between "psychical " and scientific investigations, and 

 to justify the attitude of scepticism. After all, that 

 scepticism does nothing to hamper Mr. Podmore and his 

 associates from collecting their evidence, clarifying 

 their opinions, and building up such a defensible case as 

 their peculiar circumstances permit. And be it remem- 

 bered the scientific man of to-day occupies a responsible 

 position, that he possesses even a disproportionate share 

 of the public confidence, because of his reputation for 

 sceptical caution. The public mind is incapable of the 

 suspended judgment ; it will not stop at telepathy. Any 

 general recognition of the evidence of " psychical " 

 research will be taken by the outside public to mean the 

 recognition of ghosts, witchcraft, miracles, and the 

 pretensions of many a shabby-genteel Cagliostro, now 

 pining in a desert of incredulity, as undeniable f.icts. 

 Were Mr. Podmore's case strong — and it is singularly 

 weak — the undeniable possibility of a recrudescence of 

 superstition remains as a consideration against the un- 

 qualified recognition of his evidence. 



H. G. Wells. 



THE BEGINNINGS OF HISTORY. 

 The Dawn of Civilisation^Egypt and Chaldaa. By G. 

 Maspero. Edited by A. H. Siyce. Translated by 

 M. L. -McClure. (London : Society for Promoting 

 Christian Knowledge, 1S94.) 



A S the winter season advances, and folk begin to 

 •^»- wend their way to Egypt, the enterprise of authors 

 and publishers keeps up a steady supply of good litera- 

 ture concerning the country which, since the English 

 occupation in 1SS2, has exercised upon people of all 

 nations a fascination which may be described as mar- 

 vellous. Only a few weeks ago an English translation of 

 Dr. Erman's Acgyptcn appeared, and already we have 

 before us a translation of a very important work by Prof. 

 Maspero in the same language. Hoth works are excel- 

 lent, but each is typical of the nationality of its writer, 

 and is really addressed to a different class of readers. 

 The work of Dr. Erman possesses a minuteness of detail 

 characteristic of the true German student, laborious and 

 accurate, while that of M. Maspero, though no less 

 accurate, discusses facts on a large scale with due refer- 

 ence to everything which bears upon them, and contains 

 generalisations which all thoughtful rea lers will accept 

 with gratitude ; added to this, we have the light and easy 

 style and logical arrangement of facts and sentences which 

 are the type of the work of the French master of his 

 subject. In short, Ur. Erman's book will form a standard 

 work of reference for the student of Egypt ; but that of 

 M. Maspero will take its place as a general history of 

 early oriental civilisation on the banks of the Nile, 

 Tigris, and Euphrates, and in the countries which lie 

 between. 



