176 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY 



the extent of the uniform surface is in large degree the measure of na- 

 tional strength and permanence. Irregular or rugged surfaces, as com- 

 pared with the uniformity of plains, are naturally less heavily cloaked 

 with soil, and lose that soil much more readily if it is disturbed by 

 cultivation. Furthermore, the rugged surface loses a much larger pro- 

 portion of its total rainfall through run-off, and for that reason shows 

 more quickly the undesirable effects of scanty precipitation. Hence 

 the more uniform surface is more readily adapted to the production of 

 the necessities of life and is at the same time capable of supplying 

 larger quantities for each unit of area. Assuming, therefore, that the 

 ultimate position of a nation depends mainly on its own ability to pro- 

 duce those things which come directly or indirectly from the soil, it may 

 be said that the strength and permanency of a great nation Kes mainly 

 in its agricultural plains. 



The ideal configuration of surface, judged with respect to the entire 

 question of national evolution, would include enough diversity to stim- 

 ulate variety in initiative, and at the same time, a sufficient extent of 

 level area, to give permanent strength in supplying the primary wants 

 of a large population. The United States may well be taken as the 

 nearest approach to this ideal configuration. Estimated on this basis, 

 the great nations of the future will be located on, and derive their 

 strength from, the great plains areas of the world. For that reason one 

 great nation may be expected to appear preeminent in the more favor- 

 ably situated plains of each of the four major continents. 



Productivity of the Soil and Climate. — The importance of the pro- 

 ductivity of the soil and climate as one of the factors influencing na- 

 tional evolution has already been implied. Its further consideration, 

 however, is necessary in order to indicate its variable application in the 

 different stages of evolution. Meagemess of returns from a fair amount 

 of human effort, or too great productivity with little or no regularity of 

 effort, do not offer the fundamental conditions necessary for the de- 

 velopment of nations, as indicated by the fact that no modem nation 

 has risen to importance without having begun on an agricultural basis. 

 No better evidence of that fact can be found than in the case of Britain 

 and Germany, where to-day agriculture is decidedly secondary, but not 

 very long ago was the main source of national strength. Yet however 

 great importance the agricultural basis may be assumed to have as the 

 foundation of national existence, it must be recognized in the study of 

 individual nations, that beyond the early stages of evolution, the course 

 of events, carrying the nation to the highest rank, may for a time reveal 

 no significant control by the productivity of the soil in its own area. 



The unrivaled British supremacy, in practically every respect, in 

 the past century, the commercial and industrial conditions of Germany 

 and of Japan at the present time, furnish examples of national develop- 



