570 



NA TURE 



[April 12, 1894 



vicinity of these furnaces being relatively sterile, the microbes 

 being doubtless unable to exist at such a high temperature. 

 Influenza appears to have but little regard for either sex or age, 

 for it attacked indiscriminately men, women, and children be- 

 ivveen the ages of fifteen and sixty. Its taste was proved to be 

 eq lally catholic as regards climate and situation, neither 

 meteorological nor geographical conditions appearing to exer- 

 cise any sort of control on its genesis and distribution. 



The effect of the scourge on the death rate from other diseases 

 has also been carefully investigated, and, as far as the statistics 

 go, it would appear to have materially increased the deaths 

 ascribed to pulmonary consumption. 



Innumerable tables are appended to the report, but, perhaps 

 from a popular point of view, the following statement, compiled 

 from official data, showing the time occupied by the epidemic in 

 travelling from east to west, is of most general interest. 



Influenza was present as an epidemic in June 1889 in Tur- 

 kestan, it only reached East Russia (Wjatka) after a lapse of 

 four months, in the middle of October. On October 28 it 

 appeared in West Siberia, and after an interval of three months, 

 travelling eastwards, it reached Japan in January 1890, and 

 Hong Kong in February. On its westward course it moved 

 more rapidly, for it appeared in epidemic form at the commence- 

 ment of November 1889 in Moscow, and about a fortnight 

 later in St. Petersburg. The capitals of Sweden, Denmark, 

 Germany, Austria, France, and England were all attacked to- 

 wards the end of November and beginning of December, whilst 

 in Budapest, Brussels, and Madrid it appeared in the middle of 

 December. In New York it was first heard of on December 

 19, whilst by the end of the month Milan, Rome, Naples, 

 Constantinople, numerous districts in the United States, Canada, 

 and Morocco were all in the hands of the scourge. The com- 

 mencement and middle of January found it in Turin, Algiers, 

 and Egypt, and by the end of the month it had made its appear- 

 ance in Central America and in South Africa ; owing to the 

 small amount of communication existing between Europe and 

 East Africa, it did not appear in these parts until the end of 

 March. At the end of February it arrived in Bombay. Thus 

 whilst in the absence of definite channels of communication 

 it only made slow progress, requiring upwards of four months 

 to emerge from the heart of Turkestan to European Russia, on 

 once reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg it spread with light- 

 ning rapidity over western and southern Europe, crossing the 

 oceans to all parts of the world. 



The report manipulates in a masterly manner an immense 

 mass of facts ; but valuable as the statistics here collected must 

 be for purposes of reference from an historical point of view, the 

 conclusions indicate only too plainly how far we yet are from an 

 accurate knowledge of the factors which control the genesis and 

 distribution of this terrible disease, convenient hypotheses being 

 continually upset by the conflicting evidence collected as to its 

 course and conduct. 



SCIENTIFIC SERIALS. 



Bulletin of the Nexu York Mathematical Society, vol. iii. 

 No. 6. (New York : Macmillan. March, 1894). — Prof, 

 liarkness (pp. 135-141 ) gives a careful and appreciative abstract 

 of the Cours d'Analyse de I'EcoIe Polytechnique, by Camille 

 Jordan, a work commenled by Prof Klein in " The Evanston 

 Colloquium," and which, in its second edition, is " entiere- 

 ment refondue." Three interesting, though short, notes on 

 Permutations (pp. 142-148) are furnished by Prof F. Morley. 

 They are headed a pie I fjr the chess-board in teaching deter- 

 minants, a special rule of signs, and the enumeration of 

 positions. There are numerous references to the authorities 

 on the subject. Notes and new publications are full as usual. 



SO CIE TIES AND AC A DEMIES. 



London. 



Royal Society, January 18. — "An Estimate of the Degree 

 of Legitimate Natality, as shown in the Table of Natality 

 compiled by the Author from Observations made at Budapest." 

 By Joseph Koro^i, Member of the Hungarian Academy of 

 Sciences, Director of Municipal Statistics. 



The author has tabulated the age of the 71,800 married 

 couples given in the Census of 1891, conforming to the single 

 year-combinations. The virtual number of these combinations — 



NO. 1276, VOL. 49] 



as 45 productive years of the male have to be combined with 

 each of the 40 productive years of the female — is about 2000. 

 Knowing thus the number of all age-combination«, he observed 

 for four years (two before and two after the Census) the 46,931 

 births amongst couples of those ages. By dividmg the figures 

 obtained by four, he got the yearly probability of birth for each 

 age-combination. 



As the legitimate natality is to be regarded as "a resultant 

 between two distinct forces, the instinct of nature which ui-ges 

 towards multiplication and the forethought which causes moral 

 restraint, it was also desirable to get an insight into the march 

 of the physiological fertility alone. 



Two degrees of fertility for each age were therefore obtained. 

 The difference between the degree of physiological and that of 

 the actual fertility shows, a few cases of procreative exhaustion 

 being excepted, the influence of the moral factor. In the somewhat 

 advanced age^ this moral restraint exercises an influence exceed- 

 ing all expectation. With the mothers of 30 to 35 it reduces the 

 fertility to 78 per cent, (instead of too per cent.), with tho^e of 

 43 to 2 per cent., i.e. 98/100 of the physiological faculty is 

 suppressed. With men the influence is also very great, though 

 weaker than with women. 



Out of a large number of data here follow some figures to 

 characterise the results: 



"Results derived from the Natality Table of Korosi by 

 employing the Method of Contours or Isogens." By Francis 

 Gallon, F.R.S. 



There are three variables in the statistics of natality. The 

 age of the father is one, that of the mother is another, and the 

 percental offspring of parents of those ages is the third. These 

 three variables may be co-ordinated in the same way as that 

 which is daily followed at meteorological offices in dealing witfi 

 (i) the longitudes of the various stations ; (2) their latitudes ; 

 and (3; the barometric height at each. After the e data have 

 been entered on a chart in their proper places, contours, known 

 by the name of isobars, are drawn to show the lines of equal 

 barometric pressure. In natality tables, the ages of the father 

 and the mother take the place of the longitudes and latitudes in 

 weather charts, and lines of similar birth rate«, or as I would 

 call them, "isogens," take the place of isobars. A chart con- 

 structed on this principle is shown in Fig. i. The broken line 

 A B corresponds to the instances in which both parents are of 

 the same age. The chart is practically limited to mairiages in 

 which the wife is less than five years older, and less than seven- 

 teen years younger, than her husband. 



Father': 



age. 



Fig. I. 



It will be noticed that the isogens run 'n neatly straight, 

 diagonal, and equidistant lines across the greater par. of 



