242 



NATURE 



[May i8, 1916 



By March 11 these dep6t parties had been re- 

 organised by Captain Macintosh, who went south 

 ag^ain to continue this work. The Aurora, after 

 great difficulties, took up winter quarters opposite 

 the 1910 hut at Cape Evans. After a stay there 

 of nearly two months she was carried out to sea 

 on May 6 and drifted, imprisoned in the ice, all 

 through that winter and the succeeding summer. 

 She was only released on March lo, 1916, when, 

 even if she had been undamaged and had had ade- 

 quate stores, it would have been too late to re- 

 turn to Macmurdo Sound that season. The 

 Aurora had no news from Captain Macintosh 



Proposed routes of the Shackleton expedition. 



between March 1 1 and May 6, but there seems no 

 serious cause for anxiety. He would probably 

 have spent the rest of March and the early part of 

 April depot-laying, and the bad weather at the 

 end of April may explain his failure to communi- 

 cate from Hut Point to Cape Evans. The men 

 left ashore on Macmurdo Sound have the choice 

 of three huts, and have ample stores for the two 

 winters which they have had to spend there ; and 

 there would be plenty also for Sir Ernest Shackle- 

 ton's party if it has succeeded in its journey across 

 the Pole. 



NO. 2429, VOL. 97] 



All that is necessary on the Ross Sea side is 

 the dispatch of a ship from New Zealand in 

 November or December to pick up the men left 

 ashore at Macmurdo Sound and find what news 

 there may be of the transcontinental party. As 

 to the success of this relief expedition there need 

 be no doubt, for no attempt to reach Macmurdo 

 Sound has yet failed. 



Regarding the opposite side of Antarctica, in 

 the Weddell Sea area, there can be no such confi- 

 dence, for the normal ice conditions there appear 

 to be as unfavourable as those in the Ross Sea 

 are favourable. The plans for search in the Wed- 

 dell Sea must recognise at least 

 three distinct possibilities. 



(i) Sir Ernest Shackleton may 

 have succeeded in establishing a 

 land base where he hoped to win- 

 ter, and thence started overland 

 to the Ross Sea, while two 

 sledge parties may have explored 

 westward to the base of Graham 

 Land peninsula and eastward to 

 the south of Coats Land. The 

 Endurance may have failed to re- 

 turn either in consequence of 

 waiting for one of the two sledge 

 parties, or by the packed condi- 

 tion of the ice in the Weddell 

 Sea. 



(2) The landing may have been 

 effected so late, or so much further 

 north than was intended, as to 

 leave no chance of success 

 for the transpolar sledge journey- 

 Sir Ernest Shackleton, with his 

 usual capacity for the quick rea- 

 lisation of facts, may have 

 decided to devote all the re- 

 sources of the expedition to re- 

 search in the vast unknown area 

 beside the Weddell Sea. In that 

 case all the three sledge parties 

 should have returned to the win- 

 ter quarters, though any one of 

 the three may have failed to get 

 back, and thus have delayed the 

 return of the Endurance. 



(3) It would, however, appear 

 quite possible, since the Weddell' 

 Sea has been so seldom found to 

 be navigable, that the Endu- 

 rance, in the effort to force her 

 way to the land, may, like the 



Belgica, have been caught in the ice, and the 

 whole expedition may be still on board drifting in^ 

 the floes. 



It is obvious that it is impossible to decide 

 between these three possibilities with the informa- 

 tion at present available, though from the news 

 received as to the conditions of the ice in the Wed- 

 dell Sea during the last two seasons it is highly 

 probable that Sir Ernest Shackleton may not have 

 been able to effect his desired landing. He may 

 have been forced to land on north-eastern Coats 

 Land. The Endurance may then have been car- 



