232 Life and Letters of Francis Galton 



Galton next turns to the selection of women which he apparently considers 

 harder than that of men students, because they are fewer. He would lay 

 stress on their athletic proficiency and on their capacity to pass a careful 

 medical examination, and he would pay more attention to their hereditary 

 family qualities, under which he includes those of fertility and prepotency. 



This idea of diplomas may raise a smile, but experience has shown the 

 present writer its feasibility, when public opinion is ripe for it. In any 

 university the anthropometric laboratory which tests some 25 or 30 physio- 

 logical, mental and physical characters, the eugenics laboratory which studies 

 family pedigrees, the academic examinations and the numerous athletic 

 competitions could in combination, if guided wisely, place university students 

 into classes graded sufficiently finely for Galton's aims. I believe there would 

 be no greater difficulty and considerably more accuracy than was reached 

 during the Great War in grading conscripts into A, B and C classes and their 

 subdivisions. But having admitted the possibility of at least approximately 

 selecting our promising youths* can we be certain of their subsequent perform- 

 ance? This is the subject of Galton's next section. 



He remarks on the real difficulty of the problem whether a classification in 

 youth would be a trustworthy forecast of qualities in later life, but states that 

 for eugenic purposes this classification of the relatively young is essential : 



" The accidents that make or mar a career do not enter into the scope of this difficulty. 

 It resides entirely in the fact that the development does not cease at the time of youth, 

 especially in the higher natures, but that faculties and capabilities which were then latent 

 subsequently unfold and become prominent. Putting aside the effect of serious illness, I do 

 not suppose there is any risk of retrogression in capacity before old age comes on. The mental 

 powers that a youth possesses continue with him as a man, but other faculties and new dis- 

 positions may arise and alter the balance of his character. He may cease to be efficient in the 

 way of which he gave promise, and he may perhaps become efficient in unexpected directions. 



The correlation between youthful promise and performance in mature life has never been 

 properly investigated t- Its measurement presents no greater difficulty, so far as I can foresee, 

 than in other problems which have been successfully attacked.... Let me add that I think its 

 neglect by the vast army of highly educated persons who are connected with the present huge 

 system of competitive examinations to be gross and unpardonable. Neither schoolmasters, 

 tutors, officials of the universities, nor of the State department of education J, have ever to 



* It will be seen that the lecturer does not deal with the equally, perhaps more, important 

 classification of other social grades, for example craftsmen and factory workers. 



t E. Schuster, the first Galton Research Fellow, broke ground in this direction in his paper 

 in the Eugenics Laboratory Memoirs, No. in, " The Promise of Youth and the Performance of 

 Manhood," but the subject demands the treatment of still ampler material. 



\ Some years ago our Civil Service Examinations — the most elaborate system of State 

 marking — were analysed in the Biometric Laboratory, not only with a view to testing the 

 very empirical system of marking therein adopted, but also of ascertaining whether the marks 

 thus settled were a real criterion of relative ability. The sole additional data needed were 

 appreciations of success in State service after a period of 20 or 25 years. At first one believed 

 salary might be such a test, but it was soon clear that other factors than ability were liable 

 to determine salary. A control which I proposed, namely a classification in five classes of 

 success, the judgment to be made by those acquainted with the inner working of the several offices 

 (and to be treated as strictly confidential as to the individual), was at first accepted, but later 

 rejected. Meanwhile the Government appears to have no proof — which must of course be 

 statistical — either that its system of marking is a real measure of relative ability, or that the 

 individuals thus selected fulfil in manhood the promise of their youth. 



