RESULTS OF OUR FOREST POLICY 345 



number of other woods, although the producers of some species are 

 organized on something approaching national lines, covering most 

 of the entire product, and thus might conceivably prevent any com- 

 petition between different regions. 



Akin to the competition of woods is the competition of substitute 

 building materials — brick, cement, stone, steel, fiber, and the great 

 variety of substitute roofings. Any great increase in the price of 

 lumber for building purposes would lead to an increased use of some 

 of these substitutes." 



It may be worth while to point out that competition between lumber 

 manufacturers who are owners of their own standing timber may be 

 on a somewhat different basis from competition between retailers, or 

 even between manufacturers of some other products. There has been 

 a general tendency in the past for lumber prices and timber prices 

 to rise, and, if a lumber manufacturer refuses to cut and sell his timber 

 at prevailing prices, it means that he is losing, or, perhaps better, is 

 failing to make a profit — as a manufacturer ; but he may yet make a 

 profit as owner of the standing timber if the value of standing timber 

 rises. Thus he is in a somewhat different position from that of an 

 ordinary merchant, for instance, who, when he fails to make a sale, 

 has definitely failed to make his profit, and may even lose heavily on 

 the stock remaining on his hands. The profit which may be anticipated 

 from the rise in timber values would ordinarily set what might be 

 called a "discounted future price," below which the market price of 

 lumber could hardly go, if all of the lumbermen were strong enough 

 financially to follow what they recognized as the wisest long-run 

 policy. Many lumbermen must meet heavy fixed charges, and so must 

 sell almost regardless of price, but those who are in a position of 

 financial independence have a rather stronger position in the market 

 than competitors in some other lines of industry. This consideration 

 is most important in the case of woods which are approaching ex- 

 haustion, as, for instance, white pine, or those which for any reason 

 are increasing rapidly in value. It must be noted, however, that prices 

 of some grades of lumber did not increase at all between 1905 and 

 1915, but even declined somewhat; and, while prices during the past 



10 Report No. 117, U. S. Dept. of Agr., Office of Secretary. 



