350 UNITED STATES FOREST POLICY 



market that such lists have had the most effect.^° Some lumbermen 

 have claimed that price lists were not issued with any intent to in- 

 fluence prices, but merely as a record of the prevailing market. In 

 some instances this has been true, but many of the lists have not 

 corresponded to market prices even when first issued; and there is 

 conclusive evidence that, in some cases, lists were not even intended 

 to represent the market. 



Although price lists have sometimes raised prices somewhat, they 

 may nevertheless have been justified, even from the point of view of 

 the public, for they have at times given some measure of stability to 

 a peculiarly unstable field of industry ; a field in which blind and un- 

 fettered competition has often been very severe, and in which the 

 average rate of profits has not been excessively high. A reasonable 

 degree of stability in any industry is to be desired. 



EFFECTIVENESS OF CURTAILMENT CAMPAIGNS 



Price lists could not have any great or lasting effect upon lumber 

 prices unless accompanied by some regulation of the supply. Lumber 

 associations have often attempted, however, to limit the supply 

 through organized curtailment agreements ; and these curtailment 

 agreements have sometimes had an appreciable influence upon prices. 



Curtailment agreements would sometimes be fairly easy to main- 

 tain if operators were not too deeply in debt, and were strong enough 

 financially to follow out their own interests. Loyalty to a curtailment 

 agreement has sometimes involved very little sacrifice. In a depressed 

 market, when lumbermen have had to sell their product at a price 

 below actual cost of production, those who were also owners of their 

 standing timber might easily profit by closing down for a time, and 

 indeed many of them did so, even though not bound by any agree- 

 ment. They could count upon an increase in the value of standing 

 timber to balance in some measure the immediate loss of income. 

 Timber values may not increase as much in the future as they have in 

 the past, but they will probably increase somewhat. 



There is a great deal of evidence indicating that curtailment cam- 

 paigns have sometimes influenced prices. There is, in the first place, 

 the testimony of those familiar with the industry. Speaking of a cur- 



35 "Lumber Industry," IV, 126, 563, 681. 



