RESULTS OF OUR FOREST POLICY 353 



sary evils that have demoralized the industry in former years, par- 

 ticularly the year of 1905." 



Of course this testimony, like the testimony regarding the effective- 

 ness of price lists, is probably much exaggerated ; but it- indicates that 

 curtailment campaigns have sometimes achieved a measure of success. 

 Where forfeitures or penalties were imposed, as in some of the cases 

 mentioned, it must have been possible to keep members fairly well 

 lined up, at least for a time. 



In estimating the significance of organized close-downs, it should 

 be remembered that in times of depression many mills would curtail 

 their output somewhat, or perhaps even close down altogether, without 

 any agreement or understanding whatever. It would be a very serious 

 error to assume that all, or even most, of the curtailment was due 

 to agreement. Organization, where it is efficient, merely makes the 

 curtailment more effective. 



Even if it be assumed that organized curtailment of output has 

 sometimes had an appreciable influence on prices, it does not follow 

 that it is to be unreservedly condemned. If the lumbermen merely 

 limit the cut and then leave prices to the law of supply and demand, 

 they are conserving our timber supply. This results in higher prices 

 at present of course, but logically it should increase the future supply 

 and so result in lower prices ultimately — exactly what conserva- 

 tionists are calling for.^** 



POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE TROUBLE 



It thus appears that although almost all lumbermen's associations 

 have tried to fix prices, either directly through adherence to a price 

 list, or indirectly through organized curtailment, and although some 

 of these efforts have achieved a measure of success, yet, on the whole, 

 consumers have in the past had little cause of complaint. The situation 

 is unsatisfactory mainly in that it contains the possibility of trouble 

 for the future. There are reasons for believing that price fixing may 

 be more successful in the future. 



In the first place, the amount of standing timber is decreasing 

 rapidly. The Forest Service has estimated that the present timber 

 supply of the country would last fifty-five years at the present rate 



39 For an expression of this view see Am. Lumberman, Aug. 19, 1916, 26. 



