14 



OTHER PROBLEMS NOW IN HAND. 



The farmer's task in the future will unquestionably be to increase 

 his output^ and the problems connected therewith will necessarily 

 determine the programme for future Research work. 



An examination of the yields of wheat obtained by farmers during 

 the past 40 years brings out some interesting and significant points in 

 regard to the application of science to agriculture. When the yields 

 are simply stated in five year averages, there is seen to be a small 

 tendency to rise since 1895, when attempts to disseminate scientific 

 advice among farmers became common. When, however, the yields 

 are examined in more detail a more interesting relationship is brought 

 out. In good years the average yields rise to S3 or 34 bushels — little 

 better than was obtained in the 'sixties ; but in the poor years the crops 

 no longer sink so low as formerly. Averages of 26 or 27 bushels not 

 uncommon in the 'eighties and early 'nineties are not now obtained and 

 in our worst years we only fall to 29 bushels. It is, of course, arguable 

 that seasons are better than they used to be, but it is also possible that 

 in bad years farmers are more ready than they were to apply scientific 

 principles ; when a crop is obviously suffering the help of an expert is 

 sought. 



It is a matter, however, for serious consideration that in spite of a 

 great amount of experimental work the yields in the good years are no 

 better than they used to be ; we seem to have got into an impasse, an 

 average of 34 bushels being our best result. Several factors seem to be 

 at work. In good years, when the crop is looking well, the farmer tends 

 to let well alone. He justifies this course mainly on the ground that 

 if he " does " his crop too well it will go down. So widespread is this 

 conviction that probably little progress will be made in wheat-growing 

 until the straw can be strengthened. Again, on many soils and in 

 many seasons wheat will not properly " corn out " ; attempts to increase 

 the crop lead to a great increase of flag but not of grain. A more 

 complete knowledge of tillering is also necessary. Further, the depre- 

 dations of insect and fungoid pests tend to increase with closer cropping, 

 which is an essential part of any method for increasing output. We 

 are faced, then, with at least four problems : we must strengthen the 

 straw, improve the tillering, regulate to some extent the development 

 of grain, and control the pests. Until these are all solved we cannot 

 hope to get much further with increased wheat yields. There are two 

 ways in which these problems may be attacked ; the breeder may find 

 or produce varieties possessing the necessary properties, and the 

 physiologist may succeed in elucidating and controlling the factors 

 concerned. The former method is already being applied at Cambridge 

 and at Merton ; it is hoped to apply the second method at 

 Rothamsted. 



When conditions become more normal, we hope to secure the services 

 of a statistician who can apply modern statistical methods to the 

 great mass of data accumulating at Rothamsted, and of a trained 

 physiologist who can make detailed observations in the field and reduce 

 the problems to terms in which they can be investigated in the 

 laboratory. 



