142 THE WHOLE ART OF RUBBER-GROWING 



question of their profitable cultivation without con- 

 sidering for a moment the bearing they are likely to 

 exercise upon the world's output of rubber in the next 

 few years. In this connexion, many farcical 

 attempts have lately been made by mere guessing- 

 men to establish data upon which the industry is 

 asked to base calculations almost vital to its very 

 existence. But the wiser course is patiently to wait 

 upon time and the practical experience that it will 

 bring to determine the matter for itself. One thing 

 may be taken for granted, viz., that the forward 

 policy determined upon by Brazil, and of which much 

 was expected, cannot have any appreciable effect on 

 output for the next five years at least, unless there is 

 an immediate general attraction of foreign capital 

 and foreign effort to deal with the problem, and this, 

 for many reasons, is one of the most unlikely of all 

 unlikely events. 



The actual demand for rubber during the year 1910 

 can only be calculated by the amount sold, since it is 

 notorious that consumers as a body restricted their 

 purchases in the lively hope that prices would con- 

 tinue to drop, and that at the same time the supply 

 would not fail to increase. Both those expectations 

 were to a certain degree realized, but the comforts 

 of a " bearing" market are always short-lived, and 

 in the case of rubber the operation will never be a 

 profitable one. We are justified in taking this view 

 by the facts relating not only to prices, which will 

 probably reach high averages again, but also to 

 output during 1910. The estimate of the world's 

 production for that year was 72,000 tons, but barely 



