county coianiiss loners, educators, researchers and many others will find 

 this resource information of real value when planning and making 

 projections for the future. 



RELEVANT ASSUMPTIONS 



To meet the present and future needs of man, conservation measures 

 are affected by many environmental factors and the potential uses of our 

 soil and water resources for different purposes. Since economic consid- 

 erations are important in determining feasible land use and treatment 

 needs to protect or improve the resources, the following assumptions were 

 used to obtain more plausible smd consistant estimates for the various 

 conservation needs for Montana. In general, these assumptions follow 

 those prepared for the "National Handbook for Updating the Conservation 

 Needs Inventory" with some adjustments to more adequately represent the 

 agriculture and economic conditions of Montana. These assumptions are: 



(1) The demand for goods and services from our soil and water resources 

 will continue to increase because of the expected growth in population 

 and per capita income. Annually the total population of the United 

 States is projected to increase about 1.5 percent, disposable Income per 

 capita by 2.5 percent, and gross national product about 4 percent. 

 Montana's rate of increase is far below the national average. 



(2) The present trend Is to larger and fewer farms and a shift in popu- 

 lation from rural to urban. This urban growth in Montana will result in 

 further encroachment of our highly productive agricultural lands, 

 particularly in those counties which already have large urban centers. 



(3) Anticipated crop yield increases from advances in technology should 

 remain in balance with increases in demand, thus farm prices are expected 

 to remain at or near the 1961-65 level. Crop yields and gross value per 

 acre are expected to increase about 3 percent annually. 



(4) Acreage in pasture and range is expected to decrease slightly, with 

 the shift being to cropland. An increase of 600 thousand acres is ex- 

 pected between 1967 and 1980. This acreage increase will come primarily 

 from range and pasture lands that are suitable for farming. Since 1958, 

 there has been an increase of 26 thousand acres of irrigated cropland in 

 Montana. This will continue to increase slightly and is expected to 

 reach 2.2 million acres by 1980. 



(5) The increase in demands for wood products will lead to better 

 utilization of Montana's forestry resources. Response to this demand 

 will be in terms of improved management, utilization and harvesting 

 techniques on both private and Federal managed lands. Less than one 

 third of the State's forested area is in private ownership and for max- 

 imum economic efficiency will need to be managed under a multiple use 

 concept. The timber cut from private lands in Montana for 1967 was 



