THE ILLUSION OF CHANCE. 213 



reveals some unpleasant but irresistible facts — that a sustained favor- 

 able coincidence is very rare and likely to be of doubtful permanent 

 value, because there is not a proper development of personal quality 

 whereby no injury will result from prosperity. The fortunate person 

 tries to swim in a sea of new conditions which he has not reached by 

 a natural process of growth. The phrase " always lucky " is open to 

 two objections not easily set aside, owing to the profound complexity 

 of events : that the person may have skill, tact, agreeableness ; and that 

 there may be error, owing to the special or restricted view of the per- 

 son judging. Belief in luck is directly and practically objectionable, 

 because it leads to submission in matters requiring action. 



Another singular but essentially superstitious idea at times gains 

 credence. A connection between two events is affirmed strongly in 

 proportion to lack of evidence, or it is assumed that an event has 

 necessary relation to personal welfare. This was well illustrated by 

 an occurrence in the central part of Illinois during the presidential 

 contest between Lincoln and Douglas. Two flag-staffs, about two 

 hundred feet high, had been put up in the Court-House Square of the 

 town. Just before the election the staff in honor of Douglas fell, 

 owing to a defect in the timber. It was at once thought that this 

 foreshadowed the defeat of Douglas, and when the result seemed to 

 verify this prophecy the superstitious impression became stronger than 

 ever. 



Our tendency to fill the unknown with imposing possibilities is a 

 natural and perhaps justifiable effect of the profound mysteries of life 

 and being which stimulate our curiosity and imagination, but there is 

 absurdity in postulating connections between special events which are 

 much better explained by means of the usual physical factors and the 

 reason. With some persons the supposed relation between death and 

 thirteen at table seems impressive, because it is assumed that there is 

 interference owing to unknown laws of action or association. It may 

 seem incredible that any well-educated person should hold this belief 

 seriously, yet beyond the shadow of a doubt it has influenced many 

 who were able in action, if not in dealing with questions of causation. 

 As death and thirteen at table are both quite common, it follows that 

 the concentration of attention upon this or any usual number must 

 result in the observation of many coincidences. An absence of the 

 coincidence is easily overlooked, because the allowance of one year for 

 the death to occur causes the prophecy to be forgotten. The disclosure 

 of this or any other causal connection at once deprives the superstitious 

 idea of its assumed value. This is evident in a like instance if we 

 maintain that spilling salt has relation to calamity because it indicates 

 carelessness and nervousness, Nature never overlooks carelessness, 

 and nervousness may arise from consciousness of impending trouble ; 

 hence statistics might show (if we could eliminate other influences) 

 that persons who spill salt or upset things are more liable to disaster 



