336 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



avoid joining fortunes with an unlucky man. Much of the misfortune 

 is in the man's quality ; for we say of the successful man that, if a 

 given project fails, he still has something in reserve. He has fore- 

 seen and provided for failure, and has great power of readjusting his 

 vocation in an emergency. Besides an accumulation of money, which 

 he has thrown up as an embankment between himself and disaster, he 

 has an even stronger reserve force in his knowledge of human nature, 

 his address, and his strength of character. In this sense the average 

 indicates that prolonged effort results in control. He reaches a point 

 in after-years when the special event conforms to his effort easily. 



But we must not overlook the conditions that limit success. There 

 is a margin of uncertainty in the fact that the successful man is seen 

 to suffer from temporary calamities, which clearly are not due to his 

 action or inaction. We find an outward influence completely beyond 

 his control. The fact that it can be conquered by perseverance and 

 knowledge does not lessen its irresistible force in the present. The 

 outer forces, largely social but not less powerful than those of organi- 

 zation and physical law, do not respond to his efforts — seem arrayed 

 against him, or turn unexpectedly in his favor. It thus appears that 

 the question of control might easily result in endless debate, because 

 each side — the triumph of circumstances or of human will and perse- 

 verance — includes part of the truth. While admitting that the tend- 

 ency is persistently in favor of effort, we yet find a positive conclu- 

 sion impossible to hold. The control, even under favorable condi- 

 tions, is incomplete. It is true we can not express this with even 

 relative accuracy, yet a rough idea of the truth may be given by a 

 statement of arithmetical proportion as applied to a large number of 

 men having successful qualities — such as knowledge of human nature 

 and perseverance. The proportion of control will seem much greater 

 if we consider the effect upon a given calling or condition toward 

 which the effort tends. When a person starts in life with one object 

 — say, that of making money — and uses every available means to ac- 

 complish his purpose, saving and constantly watching the public wants 

 with the intention of supplying them, working night and day at a 

 sacrifice of social recreation, the average, we may say, is as high as 

 ninety per cent that he will succeed. Many will put the possibility 

 of failure at much less than ten per cent ; but if the question be care- 

 fully considered, it will be admitted that sickness and other causes 

 may make inroads upon prosperity, so that of a hundred persons with 

 such qualities, ten might fail after a given lapse of time, owing to con- 

 ditions beyond their control. 



While noticing the proportion of failure which may result in spite 

 of prolonged effort, we must not omit the immense differences due 

 to the qualities with which men are born. This is the most important 

 of all the conditions considered. After deducting a large number of 

 exceptions, we would doubtless still find the balance heavily in favor 



