CHANCE. 87 



to the laws of history. But if a great event of the 

 17th century owes its cause to a small fact of the 

 1 6th century that no history reports and that every 

 one has neglected, then we say that this event is due 

 to chance, and so the word has the same sense as in 

 the physical sciences ; it means that small causes 

 have produced great effects. 



The greatest chance is the birth of a great man. 

 It is only by chance that the meeting occurs of two 

 genital cells of different sex that contain precisely, 

 each on its side, the mysterious elements whose mutual 

 reaction is destined to produce genius. It will be 

 readily admitted that these elements must be rare, 

 and that their meeting is still rarer. How little it 

 would have taken to make the spermatozoid which 

 carried them deviate from its course. It would have 

 been enough to deflect it a hundredth part of a inch, 

 and Napoleon would not have been born and the 

 destinies of a continent would have been changed. 

 No example can give a better comprehension of the 

 true character of chance. 



One word more about the paradoxes to which the 

 application of the calculation of probabihties to the 

 moral sciences has given rise. It has been demon- 

 strated that no parliament would ever contain a 

 single member of the opposition, or at least that such 

 an event would be so improbable that it would be 

 quite safe to bet against it, and to bet a million to 

 one. Condorcet attempted to calculate how many 

 jurymen it would require to make a miscarriage of 

 justice practically impossible. If we used the results 

 of this calculation, we should certainly be exposed 

 to the same disillusionment as by betting on the 



