170 COSMIC PHILOSOPHY. [pt. ii. 



have foreseen that it would arise in Palestine, that its spread 

 would be confined to the area covered by Koraan civilization, 

 and that its work would for a long time be most thorough in 

 the most thoroughly Eomanized regions. 



We do not need, however, to insist upon this point. For in 

 none of the concrete sciences is there anything like thorough 

 and systematic prevision, save in astronomy ; and even in 

 astronomy, our foresight becomes precarious as soon as 

 we pass beyond the solar system, and begin to inquire into 

 the results of the mutual gravitation of the innumerable 

 stellar bodies. We know that our sun is rushing, with 

 immense velocity, toward the constellation Hercules ; but we 

 cannot yet trace his orbit, as Kepler traced the orbit of Mars. 

 When we come to biology and psychology, the power of accu- 

 rate prevision is very small ; yet no one denies that the 

 phenomena of life and intelligence conform to fixed and 

 ascertainable laws. In sociology we must expect still less 

 ability to predict. The truth is, as Comte acutely pointed 

 out, that while in the simpler sciences our object is gained if 

 we can foretell the course of phenomena so as to be able to 

 regulate our actions by it, in the more complex sciences our 

 object is gained when we have generalized the conditions 

 under which phenomena occur so as to be able to make our 

 volitions count for something in modifying them. We cannot 

 modify astronomic phenomena., but we can predict them. We 

 cannot predict, save to a limited extent, biologic phenomena ; 

 but, knowing more and more thoroughly the conditions imder 

 which they occur, we can more and more skilfully modify 

 them so as to ensure health or overcome disease. And 

 obviously even this limited ability to modify the phenomena 

 implies a certain amount of prevision, — quite enough to 

 justify us in asserting that the phenomena conform to law. 

 The case is similar in sociology. Though we may not be 

 able definitely to predict a given political revolution, we may 

 nevertheless understand the general movement of affairs and 



