320 PROBLEMS ON CAUSES. 



CHAPTER XX. 



PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE CONNEXION OF CAUSES AND 

 EFFECTS. 



1 O O to apprehend in all particular instances the relation of 

 ^ cause and effect, as to connect the two extremes in thought 

 according to the order in which they are connected in nature 

 (for the modus operandi is, and must ever be, unknown to us), 

 is the final object of science. This treatise has shown, that there 

 is special reference to such an object in the constitution of the 

 intellectual faculties. There is a sphere of thought which com- 

 prehends things only as coexistent parts of a universe; but 

 there is also a sphere of thought (Chap, xi.) in which they are 

 apprehended as links of an unbroken, and, to human appear- 

 ance, an endless chain as having their place in an order con- 

 necting them both with that which has gone before, and with 

 that which shall follow after. In the contemplation of such 

 a series, it is impossible not to feel the pre-eminence which is due, 

 above all other relations, to the relation of cause and effect. 



Here I propose to consider, in their abstract form, some pro- 

 blems in which the above relation is involved. There exists 

 among such problems, as might be anticipated from the nature 

 of the relation with which they are concerned, a wide diversity. 

 From the probabilities of causes assigned a priori, or given by 

 experience, and their respective probabilities of association with 

 an effect contemplated, it may be required to determine the pro- 

 bability of that effect ; and this either, 1st, absolutely, or 2ndly, 

 under given conditions. To such an object some of the earlier 

 of the following problems relate. On the other hand, it may be 

 required to determine the probability of a particular cause, or of 

 some particular connexion among a system of causes, from ob- 

 served effects, and the known tendencies of the said causes, singly 

 or in connexion, to the production of such effects. This class of 

 questions will be considered in a subsequent portion of the 



