368 PROBLEMS ON CAUSES. [CHAP. XX. 



The question is of less importance in the special instance than 

 in its ulterior bearings. In the received applications of the theory 

 of probabilities, arbitrary constants do not explicitly appear ; 

 but in the above, and in many > other instances sanctioned by the 

 highest authorities, some virtual determination of them has been 

 attempted. And this circumstance has given to the results of 

 the theory, especially in reference to questions of causation, a 

 character of definite precision, which, while on the one hand it 

 has seemed to exalt the dominion and extend the province of 

 numbers, even beyond the measure of their ancient claim to rule 

 the world ;* on the other hand has called forth vigorous protests 

 against their intrusion into realms in which conjecture is the only 

 basis of inference. The very fact of the appearance of arbitrary 

 constants in the solutions of problems like the above, treated 

 by the method of this work, seems to imply, that definite solution 

 is impossible, and to mark the point where inquiry ought to stop. 

 We possess indeed the means of interpreting those constants, but 

 the experience which is thus indicated is as much beyond our 

 reach as the experience which would preclude the necessity of 

 any attempt at solution whatever. 



Another difficulty attendant upon these questions, and inhe- 

 rent, perhaps, in the very constitution of our faculties, is that of 

 precisely defining what is meant by Order. The manifestations 

 of that principle, except in very complex instances, we have no 

 difficulty in detecting, nor do we hesitate to impute to it an al- 

 most necessary foundation in causes operating under Law. But 

 to assign to it a standard of numerical value would be a vain, 

 not to say a presumptuous, endeavour. Yet must the attempt be 

 made, before we can aspire to weigh with accuracy the probabi- 

 bilities of different constitutions of the universe, so as to deter- 

 mine the elements upon which alone a definite solution of the 

 problems in question can be established. 



23. The most usual mode of endeavouring to evade the ne- 

 cessary arbitrariness of the solution of problems in the theory of 



* Mundum regunt numeri. 



f See an interesting paper by Prof. Forbes in the Philosophical Magazine, 

 Dec. 1850; also Mill's Logic, chap, xviii. 



