376 PROBABILITY OF JUDGMENTS. [CHAP. XXI. 



CHAPTER XXI. 



PARTICULAR APPLICATION OF THE PREVIOUS GENERAL METHOD 

 TO THE QUESTION OF THE PROBABILITY OF JUDGMENTS. 



1 . /^\N the presumption that the general method of this treatise 



Vir for the solution of questions in the theory of probabilities, 

 has been sufficiently elucidated in the previous chapters, it is pro- 

 posed here to enter upon one of its practical applications selected 

 out of the wide field of social statistics, viz., the estimation of the 

 probability of judgments. Perhaps this application, if weighed 

 by its immediate results, is not the best that could have been 

 chosen. One of the first conclusions to which it leads is that of 

 the necessary insufficiency of any data that experience alone can 

 furnish, for the accomplishment of the most important object of 

 the inquiry. But in setting clearly before us the necessity of 

 hypotheses as supplementary to the data of experience, and in 

 enabling us to deduce with rigour the consequences of any hy- 

 pothesis which may be assumed, the method accomplishes all 

 that properly lies within its scope. And it may be remarked, 

 that in questions which relate to the conduct of our own species, 

 hypotheses are more justifiable than in questions such as those re- 

 ferred to in the concluding sections of the previous chapter. Our 

 general experience of human nature comes in aid of the scantiness 

 and imperfection of statistical records. 



2. The elements involved in problems relating to criminal 

 assize are the following : 



1st. The probability that a particular member of the jury 

 will form a correct opinion upon the case. 



2nd. The probability that the accused party is guilty. 



3rd. The probability that he will be condemned, or that he 

 will be acquitted. 



4th. The probability that his condemnation or acquittal will 

 be just. 



5th. The constitution of the jury. 



